BTCUSD Today: January 25 – Dalio’s Dollar Alarm as Bitcoin Nears $90K
The bitcoin price usd is hovering near $89,326 as BTCUSD slips toward the $90,000 mark. A fresh Ray Dalio warning about “capital wars” and weaker dollar dynamics are steering flows toward gold, which printed a new record. For Australian investors, this raises clear questions on positioning, timing, and risk. Today we break down price action, the macro setup, and practical trading levels so you can decide if this dip is a buy or a warning sign to wait.
Bitcoin at $89K: what the tape says
BTC trades at $89,326.06, down 0.15% on the day, with a range of $89,042 to $89,832.72. The bitcoin price usd sits just below the 50-day average at $90,220.15 and well under the 200-day at $105,438.91. RSI at 48.91 signals neutral momentum. Year high is $126,296.00, year low is $74,420.69. Mixed signals keep intraday moves fast.
ATR at 3,252.65 confirms large swings. Bollinger Bands span $84,208.69 to $93,209.41, with the middle band near $88,709.05 acting as a pivot. ADX at 25.89 shows a firm trend. MACD at -245.82 vs signal -967.46 leaves a positive histogram of 721.64, hinting bearish pressure is easing but not yet flipped.
Watch the 50-day average at $90,220.15 as first resistance and the Bollinger middle at $88,709.05 as intraday support. A break above $90,220 may open $93,209.41. Lose $88,709 and the lower band near $84,208.69 comes into view. The bitcoin price usd also respects micro levels around today’s low at $89,042.
Macro drivers: Dalio, dollar and gold
Ray Dalio flagged “capital wars” where nations reduce exposure to U.S. assets, pressuring the dollar and valuations. He sees policy standoffs and tariffs as triggers for portfolio shifts. Read the full context in this CNBC report. For crypto, dollar swings can cut both ways by shaping risk appetite and liquidity.
Gold hit a fresh record as haven demand rose amid tariff headlines and political noise. Dalio’s longer-cycle views on debt and currency regimes reinforce that mix, as he discussed here: Firstlinks interview. If gold absorbs more safety flows, crypto’s hedge role can look cyclical, even when the dollar softens.
For local investors, the key is mapping global news to AUD trading. Many AU brokers and ETFs quote AUD pairs, but the base narrative still tracks the bitcoin price usd. Macro shocks can widen spreads. Keep orders disciplined and size for volatility when tariff or FX headlines break during Sydney afternoon and U.S. data hours.
Short-term trading plan and risk
Above $90,220.15, a momentum push could test $93,209.41. Failure to hold $88,709.05 raises risk of $86,000 to $84,208.69. With ATR at 3,252.65, consider smaller position sizes and wider stops. The bitcoin price usd often whipsaws around averages, so wait for a closing confirmation rather than chasing the first tick.
Sydney mornings can be quieter, but U.S. hours bring most depth. Watch spreads around key U.S. data and Fed speakers. Weekends can see thin books and gap risk. If you trade via AU platforms, note any conversion costs and funding rates that can add to slippage on fast moves.
Set a defined stop before entry and target a risk-reward of at least 1:2. Avoid stacking leverage into news spikes linked to capital wars risk or tariff updates. If you scale in, space orders by volatility bands, not round numbers. Keep cash ready for forced liquidations that can create sharp reversals.
Medium-term outlook and forecasts
Model baselines point to $92,791.00 for one month, $125,516.64 for a quarter, and $95,894.00 over a year. Longer views show $120,797.95 in 3 years, $145,675.76 in 5, and $170,579.71 in 7. Price below the 200-day at $105,438.91 argues for patience. Treat these as guideposts, not guarantees.
A stronger dollar, easing tariffs, or softer policy tensions could cap the bitcoin price usd near the 200-day. Conversely, deeper “Ray Dalio warning” themes or new shocks could revive the hedge bid. Watch closes versus $90,220.15 and $88,709.05 to judge if momentum is building or fading.
Final Thoughts
Our take for Australian investors: respect the tape and the macro. BTC sits at $89,326.06, caught between the 50-day at $90,220.15 and the Bollinger middle at $88,709.05. With ATR at 3,252.65 and ADX at 25.89, intraday swings will stay active. Gold’s record and the Ray Dalio warning about capital wars risk support a hedging mindset, but flows can rotate fast. Action plan: wait for a clear break and close above $90,220 for upside attempts, or guard capital if $88,709 gives way. Size positions for volatility, set stops before entry, and time trades around U.S. market hours. Keep attention on FX headlines and tariff news that can shift the bitcoin price usd in minutes.
FAQs
What is the current bitcoin price usd and today’s key levels?
BTC trades near $89,326.06. First resistance is the 50-day average at $90,220.15, then $93,209.41. Support sits near the Bollinger middle at $88,709.05 and the lower band at $84,208.69. Intraday reference points include today’s low at $89,042 and the session high at $89,832.72.
How does Ray Dalio’s ‘capital wars’ warning impact crypto?
If countries trim U.S. assets, dollar trends can swing. That can lift or dent risk appetite. In stress, some flows prefer gold, which just hit a record. For bitcoin, watch how the dollar, tariffs, and liquidity interact rather than assuming a steady inverse link to USD strength.
Is gold’s strength bearish for bitcoin right now?
Not always, but it can be in the short run. When fear spikes, gold often captures more haven demand. As risk stabilises, flows can rotate back to crypto. Track closes versus $90,220.15 and $88,709.05 to judge whether the market is rewarding growth exposure or safety.
What should Australian traders prioritise during this volatility?
Focus on execution and timing. The most liquidity appears during U.S. hours. Use smaller sizes with ATR at 3,252.65 and set stops before entry. Watch spreads around data releases. Keep an eye on FX headlines and tariff news that can swing the bitcoin price usd quickly.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
