What does a BoC hold at 2.25% mean for my mortgage?

A hold stabilizes variable-rate payments and helps keep fixed-rate offers near current cycle lows. Renewers may see smaller payment increases than feared. Compare multiple lenders, review prepayment options, and stress-test payments at a higher rate to build a cushion. Consider portability if you may move within your term.

Could the bank of canada interest rate rise later in 2026?

Yes. If USMCA trade risk leads to tariffs or if inflation re-accelerates, the Bank could pivot hawkish. That would lift bond yields and mortgage rates. For now, markets lean toward a prolonged hold. Watch inflation, wage growth, and policy statements for early clues about any shift.

How does USMCA trade risk affect rates?

Tariffs can raise imported goods costs and push inflation higher. A weaker Canadian dollar could amplify the effect. If inflation stays above target, the Bank may signal a tighter stance. That would pressure bond yields and mortgage rates. Trade calm would support a steady policy and anchored borrowing costs.

Is now a good time to lock in a fixed rate?

If you value payment certainty, locking while rates are at cycle lows can reduce risk. If you expect a long hold or lower rates later, a shorter fixed term can preserve flexibility. Compare total costs, penalties, and prepayment rights before choosing. Consider your timeline, income stability, and risk tolerance.

Global Market Insights

Bank of Canada January 26: Hold Likely; Mortgage Rates at Cycle Lows

ByHuzaifa Zahoor January 27, 2026January 27, 2026

The bank of canada interest rate is widely expected to stay at 2.25% on January 26, with markets pricing a near-90% chance of a hold. Inflation sits near 2.4%, growth is soft, and housing activity has cooled. Economists see a long pause that could run through 2026. Mortgage rates in Canada appear at cycle lows, offering a window for buyers and renewers. We explain what a hold means for households, risks from USMCA trade talks, and what to watch next.