Q4 beat: UNH stock Jan 2026 UnitedHealth NYSE trims 2026 revenue, watch margins
UNH stock opened lower intraday after UnitedHealth Group reported a mixed fourth quarter on 27 Jan 2026. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $2.11 versus $2.10 expected, with revenue of $113.20B missing the $113.82B LSEG consensus. Shares trade at $281.95 on the NYSE with heavy volume of 43,360,667.00 as investors digest a 2026 revenue guide that signals a shrink in sales and a shift to margin repair. We examine the earnings details, valuation, market reaction, and Meyka AI forecasts for UNH stock
UNH stock earnings snapshot
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported Q4 adjusted EPS $2.11, beating the $2.10 estimate. Net income included one-time items that reduced GAAP profit to $0.01 per share. Revenue came in at $113.20B, below the expected $113.82B. The quarter shows operational stabilization, but revenue softness is the key driver behind intraday selling.
Earnings beat did not offset guidance moves. Management flagged divestitures and membership declines as drivers of a projected 2026 revenue contraction. Investors focused on the revenue guide and margin outlook more than the EPS beat.
UNH stock guidance and revenue outlook
UnitedHealth expects 2026 revenue to top $439.00B, down about 2.00% year over year, marking the first annual decline in decades. CFO commentary pointed to divestitures, U.S. membership declines near 3.00M, and Medicare coding changes as the main headwinds. The company estimates a net $6.00B revenue impact from the Medicare V28 coding transition.
The insurer set a 2026 medical benefit ratio target around 88.80%, versus 89.10% in 2025. That small improvement signals the push for margin recovery. For investors of UNH stock, the guide reframes growth narrative into a margin and portfolio-realignment story.
UNH stock valuation, metrics and Meyka AI grade
UNH trades at $281.95 with trailing EPS $19.20 and a PE of 18.31. Key ratios include price to sales 0.73, price to book 3.33, and free cash flow yield about 5.45%. Average daily volume is 7,493,781.00 shares, but today’s volume is elevated at 43,360,667.00, showing heavy intraday interest.
Meyka AI rates UNH with a score out of 100: 76.72, Grade B+, Suggestion BUY. This grade factors in S&P 500 comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. These scores are for information only and are not financial advice.
UNH stock market reaction and technicals
On the NYSE intraday tape UNH stock fell to a day low of 281.42 from an open of 293.97. The one-day change shows a sharp move, with the quoted change at -20.86% reflecting the gap from the previous close $356.26. Technicals show an RSI near 57.65 and MACD histogram positive, suggesting short-term buyers may re-enter on weakness.
Traders should note support near the 200-day average at 336.20 and resistance at 349.55 upper Bollinger band. Volume and volatility indicators point to active repositioning after the earnings and guide update.
UNH stock risks and opportunities
Primary near-term risks for UNH stock are a larger than expected Medicaid and Medicare payment headwind, slower membership stabilization, and rising medical cost trends. The CMS Medicare Advantage rate proposal and V28 coding changes are key policy risks to monitor.
Opportunities include margin gains if UnitedHealth successfully right-sizes membership, completes planned divestitures, and reduces claim cost growth. Optum segments offer higher margin potential, and any signs of medical cost moderation could drive upside for UNH stock.
UNH stock outlook and price scenarios
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a one-month target of $315.09, a quarterly target of $245.74, and a yearly target of $490.86. Versus the current price $281.95, the model implies a one-month upside of 11.76%, a quarterly downside of -12.84%, and a one-year upside of 74.12%. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
For practical price targets, we show a near-term reference of $315.09, a fair-value scenario near $384.00 based on a 20.00x PE on trailing EPS, and a bull case aligned with the one-year forecast at $490.86.
Final Thoughts
UNH stock delivered an adjusted Q4 EPS beat but hit investors with a lowered revenue profile for 2026 on 27 Jan 2026. The market reaction reflects concern that divestitures, membership declines near 3.00M, and Medicare coding changes will weigh on top-line growth even as management targets margin repair. Valuation metrics, including a trailing PE of 18.31 and free cash flow yield 5.45%, give a framework for re-entry if medical-cost trends stabilize. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a one-month target of $315.09, implying an 11.76% upside from $281.95, and a one-year projection of $490.86, or 74.12% upside. These scenarios highlight the split between near-term execution risk and longer-term recovery potential. Investors should watch CMS rate updates, membership flows, and Optum operating improvements for signals that UNH stock can resume its prior growth trajectory. Meyka AI provides this as data-driven analysis, not investment advice, and our forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
FAQs
What drove UNH stock’s sharp move after the report?
UNH stock moved mainly on a weaker 2026 revenue guide and expected membership declines. The Q4 EPS beat was offset by revenue shortfall and policy headwinds like Medicare V28 that reduce insurer payments.
What are Meyka AI’s UNH stock price forecasts?
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects $315.09 in one month, $245.74 quarterly, and $490.86 over one year. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Should I watch UNH stock for dividend income?
UnitedHealth pays a dividend with a yield near 2.48% and a payout ratio around 44.61%. UNH stock can serve income investors, but watch earnings trends and cash flow before relying on dividend stability.
How does UNH stock compare to peers after earnings?
After the guide, UNH stock faces similar pressure as large insurers from Medicare rate moves and cost inflation. Analysts still show a buy tilt with 32 buys, 5 holds, and 2 sells, so consensus remains constructive.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
