GEO Stock Today: January 28 Minnesota ICE Protests Cloud Outlook
GEO stock today is under pressure as Minnesota ICE protests intensify scrutiny of immigration enforcement and potential detention contract risk. We review GEO with the latest trade at $16.19, down 3.75%, within a $16.11 to $16.42 range. Shares sit far below the $32.25 year high and above the $14.27 year low. Low volume of 551,142 versus a 1,912,934 average shows muted participation. With earnings due on February 12, 2026, headline risk and policy shifts are front of mind for U.S. investors.
Price action and technical setup
GEO stock today trades at $16.19, off $0.63, with a $16.11 low and $16.42 high. The Bollinger middle band sits at $16.45, upper at $17.08, and lower at $15.82, framing near-term volatility. ATR is 0.60, implying typical daily swings of about 3.7%. Volume is 551,142 versus a 1,912,934 average, indicating a quieter session.
RSI at 48.32 is neutral, while ADX at 12.26 signals no strong trend. MACD is slightly negative at -0.04 with a -0.04 histogram, reflecting soft momentum. Stochastic %K at 45.23 and Williams %R at -58.68 point to mid-range conditions. GEO stock today lacks a clear directional push, keeping traders focused on catalysts.
GEO stock today hovers around the 50-day average at $16.43, while the 200-day stands higher at $21.64. The lower Bollinger band at $15.82 and upper at $17.08 set a tactical range. A break below $15.82 risks a test of $14.27. A close above $17.08 would target $18.00 first, then $19.50 if momentum improves.
Policy headlines and contract risk
Viral footage of an ICE agent threatening a legal observer in Minnesota has driven protests and scrutiny of enforcement practices. Coverage has spread nationally, elevating headline risk for operators with immigration exposure. See reporting here: “I Erase Your Voice”: ICE Agents Threaten People After Alex Pretti. GEO stock today reflects this sensitivity as investors reassess procurement and oversight dynamics.
Detention contract risk is central because changes in policy, investigations, or local pushback can affect new awards, renewals, and occupancy. GEO stock today is tied to federal and state procurement cycles that are public and political. Even if core operations remain stable, negative sentiment can slow expansions, compress pricing, or increase compliance costs, pressuring margins and cash generation.
A leadership shake-up can shift enforcement priorities. Investors often benchmark scenarios to the Tom Homan ICE era to gauge potential detention demand. Tone and guidance from officials matter for contract pipelines and occupancy visibility. Another lens on public backlash is here: ICE agents show their ass—literally. GEO stock today trades as a proxy for these evolving expectations.
Fundamentals and valuation check
At $16.19, GEO stock today trades at a 9.65 P/E on $1.69 EPS and about 1.50x book. EV/EBITDA is 6.56. Debt-to-equity is 1.07 with net debt/EBITDA at 2.54 and interest coverage at 1.89, which leaves limited cushion if rates stay higher. Market cap is $2.271 billion, with PB near 1.50 suggesting modest premium to equity value.
Operating cash flow per share is $1.51, but free cash flow per share is $0.19, a thin 1.15% yield. Capex to OCF runs at 0.87, signaling steady investment needs. GEO stock today offers no dividend, keeping flexibility for debt reduction. Cash per share is $1.33, which helps liquidity alongside a current ratio of 1.62.
For 2024, revenue grew 0.44%, while net income fell 70% and EPS declined 68%, highlighting earnings pressure. Analysts show 2 Buys with a 4.00 consensus. A recent composite grade is B with a Hold stance. GEO stock today faces an earnings catalyst on February 12, 2026, where occupancy commentary and contract updates will matter most.
Scenarios and what to watch into earnings
Key drivers include the Minnesota situation, any federal statements on enforcement, and visibility on contract renewals. GEO stock today may react to procurement headlines or oversight actions that alter demand expectations. Management’s tone on occupancy, pricing, and compliance costs during earnings could reset forecasts and volatility into Q1 and Q2.
If protests expand and policy tightens, the market could assign a higher risk premium, keeping price below the 50-day average near $16.43 and testing $15.82 support. If leadership signals stable enforcement and steady procurement, GEO stock today could challenge $17.08, then $18.00. Watch volume versus the 1.91 million average for conviction.
We would size positions conservatively until earnings clarity. For GEO stock today, a swing plan could respect $15.82 support and $17.08 resistance, adjusting stops to ATR near $0.60. Long-term holders should focus on debt trajectory, occupancy trends, and contract duration. Clear guidance could reduce the discount to the 200-day average at $21.64.
Final Thoughts
GEO stock today trades in a tight band while policy headlines raise real contract questions. The setup is balanced: valuation at 9.65x earnings looks reasonable, but interest coverage at 1.89 and thin free cash flow limit room for error. Into February 12, 2026, we will focus on occupancy trends, renewal cadence, compliance cost impacts, and any color on procurement pipelines. For traders, the $15.82 to $17.08 range frames risk and reward. For investors, the risk case hinges on contract and oversight pressures, while the upside case rests on stable demand and debt reduction. A disciplined position size and clear stop levels make sense until guidance improves.
FAQs
How are the ICE Minnesota protests affecting GEO stock today?
They increase headline risk and raise questions about enforcement priorities, oversight, and procurement timelines. That can influence expectations for detention demand, renewals, and occupancy. Short term, sentiment can compress multiples and keep shares range-bound until management provides clarity on contracts and compliance costs during the February 12, 2026 earnings call.
What does detention contract risk mean for investors?
It is the chance that policy changes, investigations, or local pushback alter bidding, pricing, renewals, or utilization. For GEO stock today, that can impact revenue visibility and margins. Investors should track guidance on occupancy, contract duration, and compliance spending, plus any updates on pending awards or facility operating status.
Is GEO stock today cheap on valuation?
At 9.65x earnings and about 1.50x book, valuation looks modest, but leverage and low interest coverage reduce safety. Free cash flow per share is $0.19, which is thin. The risk discount reflects policy uncertainty. A clearer outlook on occupancy and contracts could support multiple expansion, but weak guidance would cap upside.
What should I watch into GEO’s February 12, 2026 earnings?
Focus on occupancy trends, renewal cadence, compliance cost guidance, and commentary on immigration enforcement demand. For GEO stock today, also watch technical levels around $15.82 and $17.08, plus volume versus the 1.91 million average. Any update on debt reduction and interest expense will shape the post-call risk profile.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
