META Stock Today, January 28: +10% After Q4 Beat and $135B 2026 AI Capex
Meta stock surged about 10% after hours today after META topped Q4 expectations and guided Q1 revenue above estimates. Management also projected a massive 2026 AI capex range of $115–$135 billion, pointing to a multi‑year build of compute and data centers. Canadian investors are weighing strong ad cash generation against higher spend and supply limits through 2026. All figures are USD unless noted. We break down the beat, the 2026 plan, and what it means for Meta stock in Canada.
Q4 beat and guidance: what changed today
Meta beat Q4 expectations and guided Q1 revenue ahead of consensus, lifting confidence in near‑term growth. The company highlighted steady ad demand and improving ROI tools, which supported stronger pacing into early 2026. After-hours, Meta stock jumped roughly 10% as investors priced in better revenue visibility. For details on the surprise and guidance ranges, see reporting from CNBC.
Results leaned on higher advertiser budgets, better AI-driven ad ranking, and strong engagement across Facebook, Instagram, and Reels. WhatsApp business messaging continues to scale, adding optional upside. While unit pricing and mix shift by region, management pointed to improved conversion and signal quality. These dynamics helped offset macro noise and seasonal effects, supporting a positive setup for Meta stock into the March quarter.
The after-hours spike reflects a reset in near‑term expectations and confidence that ad cash flow can fund investment. Investors view the guide as a sign that revenue growth can outrun cost inflation, at least in early 2026. That said, the path forward will depend on execution on AI capacity and continued ad demand. For Canadian buyers, liquidity and spreads remain tightest around US market hours.
2026 AI capex: scale, coverage, and risks
Management outlined 2026 AI capex of $115–$135 billion to expand data centers, GPUs, networking, and in‑house silicon. The plan targets compute to support ranking, recommendation, ads, and new AI products. Supply constraints are expected through 2026 as infrastructure scales. This spending trajectory, reported by The Globe and Mail, is the key debate now driving Meta stock.
Meta enters this cycle with strong profitability and liquidity. TTM EPS is 22.61 and the P/E is 28.89. Operating cash flow per share is 42.74 with capex at 58.32% of operating cash flow. Net margin is 30.89% and debt to equity is 0.263, with interest coverage of 85.4x. The dividend yield is about 0.31%. These metrics suggest capacity to fund elevated capex while staying investment‑grade.
Execution risk is central: delays in chips, data center buildouts, or networking could cap product rollout. Higher capex may pressure free cash flow if ad growth slows. Regulatory and privacy shifts could affect targeting and measurement. Competitive intensity in AI assistants and short‑form video remains high. Any cracks here could test sentiment in Meta stock even with strong guidance.
What Canadian investors should watch
META lists in the US, so returns for Canadians include currency effects. A stronger CAD can reduce USD gains. Investors can consider CAD‑hedged or unhedged exposure via US shares or Canadian ETFs. Tax treatment differs by account type and product structure. US dividend withholding may apply, and rules vary. Given a 0.31% dividend yield, income is modest, but investors should verify tax details.
Most Canadian brokers route directly to US exchanges, where META has deep liquidity. Spreads are usually tight during US market hours, while after‑hours moves can be volatile. Limit orders help control entry price. If participating after hours, use caution and size trades smaller. For many, waiting for regular hours liquidity after a gap in Meta stock can reduce slippage.
The AI buildout raises both upside and execution risk. Portfolio sizing should reflect that mix. Growth investors may accept higher volatility for long‑term AI optionality. Balanced investors might pair Meta stock with cash‑flowing defensives or broad index funds. Reassess position size if free cash flow coverage weakens or if revenue growth trails the rising investment pace through 2026.
Valuation, Street view, and technicals
On TTM metrics, the P/E is 28.89 and price to sales is 8.94. Return on equity is 30.93% and operating margin is 43.23%. Free cash flow to price sits near 2.65% using TTM. These figures imply a quality premium, now tested by capex scale. If revenue growth sustains, valuation can hold. If growth slips, Meta stock could compress toward sector averages.
Analysts skew positive: 2 Strong Buys, 51 Buys, 4 Holds, and no Sells, implying a Buy consensus. Our Meyka system grade is A with a BUY suggestion based on growth, profitability, and forecasts. Earnings were released on 2026‑01‑28. We will watch for model revisions following guidance. Any change in capex cadence will likely drive estimate and target updates.
RSI at 49.15 is neutral, while ADX at 28.20 signals a firm trend. Bollinger Bands center near 656.71 with upper at 670.68 and lower at 642.73, framing nearby ranges. Momentum and CCI are soft but stabilizing. Short‑term forecasts tilt modestly higher, though gaps often retrace. Traders in Meta stock may look for consolidation above prior resistance before adding risk.
Final Thoughts
Here is our takeaway for Canadian investors. The Q4 beat and above‑consensus guide improve near‑term visibility, while the 2026 AI capex plan of $115–$135 billion is the main debate. Meta’s balance sheet, margins, and cash flow look able to support aggressive buildouts, but execution and supply limits can sway free cash flow. Treat the after‑hours jump as a reset in expectations, not a guarantee of trend continuation. Consider staged entries, use limit orders, and size positions to your risk tolerance. If revenue growth stays firm and capex converts into product gains, Meta stock can justify its premium. If growth slips, expect valuation pressure. As always, align exposure with your horizon and liquidity needs.
FAQs
Why did Meta stock jump after hours today?
Meta beat Q4 expectations and guided Q1 revenue above estimates, which boosted confidence in near‑term growth. Management also set a large 2026 AI capex range of $115–$135 billion, signaling long‑term product investment. Investors rewarded the stronger outlook with about a 10% after‑hours move, though regular session trading may differ.
How risky is Meta’s 2026 AI capex plan for investors in Canada?
The plan can expand AI capacity and moat, but it raises execution and supply risks. If buildouts are delayed or ad growth slows, free cash flow could tighten. For Canadians, add FX and tax considerations. Keep position sizes aligned to your risk tolerance and revisit if growth falls short of spending.
Is Meta stock still attractive on valuation after the spike?
On TTM numbers, the P/E is 28.89 and price to sales is 8.94, backed by strong margins and ROE. Valuation looks reasonable if revenue growth stays firm and AI investments drive new monetization. If growth fades, multiples could compress. Stagger entries and watch updates to revenue and capex cadence.
What should Canadian investors know about buying META shares?
META trades in USD on US exchanges. Your returns will reflect USD/CAD moves. Many Canadian brokers provide direct access and tight spreads during US hours. Consider whether you prefer direct shares or Canadian ETFs, and whether to hedge currency. Verify account‑specific tax rules, especially for US dividend withholding.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
