META Stock Today: January 29 Q4 Sales +24%, AI Capex Ramps for 2026
Meta stock (META) is in focus after Meta Q4 earnings showed revenue up 24% to US$59.9B, with talk of higher AI capex 2026 spending. The stock trades near US$668.73, about HK$5,220, as investors balance faster ad growth against investment needs. Bank of America forecast adjustments highlight this trade-off. For Hong Kong investors, we break down results, valuation, key technicals, and what rising AI spend could mean for margins and near-term returns into Q1.
Q4 results and 2026 AI investment plan
Meta reported Q4 revenue of US$59.9B, up 24% year over year, driven by stronger ads and better engagement. TTM net margin sits near 30.9%, with EPS at US$22.61. The company’s dividend yield is about 0.31%. Management continues to fund AI infrastructure, while keeping a solid balance sheet, with debt-to-equity at 0.26 and interest coverage of 85x. This supports flexibility even as spending rises.
Analysts flag higher 2026 capex and opex for AI training and inference capacity. A faster Q1 revenue view may justify higher spend, but it could pressure near-term free cash flow. Research notes suggest accelerated AI build-out aligns with product roadmaps and ads relevance improvements source. Investors should watch capex guidance updates and how management frames ROI timelines.
Price action, valuation, and key levels
Meta stock trades at US$668.73 (about HK$5,220), down 0.63% on the day. It sits above its 50-day average (US$641.85) but below the 200-day (US$678.90). RSI is 49.15, near neutral, while ADX at 28.2 signals a firm trend. Price is near the Bollinger upper band at US$670.68, with ATR of US$15.26 indicating moderate daily swings.
At a P/E near 29.6 and price-to-sales around 8.94, valuation remains premium versus many internet peers. Free cash flow yield is about 2.65%. Dividend payout ratio is roughly 9%, leaving room for buybacks or reinvestment. For HK investors, that mix suggests growth-led returns, with limited income today but potential compounding if AI spend boosts long-term earnings.
Street views and Bank of America reset
Wall Street lists 2 strong buys, 51 buys, and 4 holds, with a Buy consensus. Meyka Stock Grade is A (score 83.6), suggesting BUY. Our baseline price models point to US$680.73 over one month and US$714.21 over one quarter. These ranges assume stable ad demand and measured capex pacing without major execution setbacks.
Bank of America reset its Meta stock outlook before results, reflecting higher AI capex 2026 and a faster Q1 revenue view source. For positioning, we watch whether management guides to stronger Reels monetization and improved ad conversion, which could offset margin pressure. Any granular update on AI-driven ad performance would be a key near-term catalyst.
What this means for Hong Kong investors
With the HKD linked to the USD, currency swings are limited, but investors still face time-zone gaps and overnight news risk. Meta stock’s intraday range was US$666.10 to US$677.68, around HK$5,195 to HK$5,286. Consider limit orders and be mindful of US earnings season timing, as key guidance often drops after Hong Kong trading hours.
If you expect ad momentum to continue, a staggered entry near the 50-day average offers a defined risk zone. If worried about AI capex 2026, pair core shares with protective puts around the 200-day. Key risks include weaker ad demand, slower AI ROI, and regulation. Reassess if price decisively loses the 50-day on rising volume.
Final Thoughts
Meta stock presents a clear trade-off: faster top-line growth against larger AI spending into 2026. Q4 revenue rose 24% to US$59.9B, margins remain strong, and the balance sheet looks solid. The stock trades above its 50-day but below the 200-day, with neutral RSI and a firm trend. For Hong Kong investors, watch capex guidance, Q1 revenue momentum, and any updates on AI-driven ad improvements. Consider staged entries and set risk levels near key moving averages. If management shows credible ROI on AI capex, valuation can hold. If not, expect near-term multiple pressure. Keep position sizing disciplined and review after guidance updates.
FAQs
Is Meta stock attractive for Hong Kong investors after Q4?
It is appealing for growth-focused investors. Sales rose 24% and margins are strong, but higher AI capex in 2026 could trim near-term free cash flow. Consider staggered buys, using the 50-day average as a reference level, and monitor Q1 guidance and ad momentum before adding size.
How could AI capex 2026 affect Meta’s margins?
Higher AI spend can lift depreciation and operating costs, which may pressure margins for a few quarters. If investment improves ad targeting, Reels monetization, and new AI services, earnings should scale later. Watch capex guidance, data center plans, and management’s ROI timelines before assuming a margin reset.
What key technical levels should I watch on Meta stock?
The 50-day average near US$641.85 is first support, while the 200-day around US$678.90 is resistance. Price near the Bollinger upper band at US$670.68 suggests limited short-term upside without a catalyst. ATR near US$15 helps size positions. A decisive move above the 200-day could invite momentum buying.
What is Bank of America’s latest stance on Meta stock?
Bank of America reset its forecast before earnings, noting higher 2026 AI capex and a faster Q1 view. The focus is whether stronger near-term growth can offset heavier investment. We suggest tracking management commentary on AI-driven ad performance and any updates to capex and opex outlooks.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
