GEO Stock Today: January 28 ICE Backlash Puts Contracts in Focus
GEO stock today sits at the centre of the ICE controversy after public comments by Megyn Kelly and new attention on Alex Pretti. We review GEO through a Canadian lens, focusing on contract exposure, valuation, and near-term catalysts. The stock is US$16.05, down 1.9% on the day, with a 1-year decline of 46.5%. With earnings on February 12, 2026 at 13:30 UTC, investors in Canada should weigh headline risk, funding visibility, and currency effects when evaluating detention and monitoring revenue streams tied to U.S. immigration policy.
Contracts and Policy Risk in Focus
Megyn Kelly’s latest remarks and renewed attention on Alex Pretti keep immigration enforcement in headlines, reinforcing political risk to detention demand. Coverage from The Hill spotlights the tone of debate, while Kelly’s show adds details and opinion source source. For GEO stock today, more scrutiny can lift utilization in the short run, yet it also raises the risk of policy shifts or local moratoriums that affect capacity and pricing.
GEO’s U.S. Secure Services and monitoring businesses depend on government renewals and appropriations. GEO stock today reflects uncertainty around ICE contracts and municipal decisions following the Minneapolis incident. For Canadian investors, procurement cycles can be slow, and budget headlines matter. Watch whether renewals include tougher performance clauses, shorter terms, or rate pressure, all of which can weigh on revenue stability and near-term cash flow.
Price, Valuation, and Trend Check
GEO stock today is US$16.05, down 1.9% day over day, trading between US$15.98 and US$16.44. The 52-week range is US$14.27 to US$32.25. Shares sit below the 50-day average of US$16.46 and well under the 200-day average of US$21.58. Volume is 1.96 million versus a 1.93 million average. Canadian buyers should note USD exposure and potential currency swings against CAD.
Momentum is mixed. RSI is 48.32, ADX is 12.26 signaling no clear trend, and MACD histogram is slightly negative at -0.04. ATR sits at 0.60, with Bollinger lower and upper bands near 15.82 and 17.08. Money Flow Index is 29.45, tilting cautious. GEO stock today looks range bound near the lower band, where failed tests could invite more downside.
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Watch
Balance sheet checks matter for GEO stock today. Debt to equity is 1.07, net debt to EBITDA is 2.54, and interest coverage is 1.89. Liquidity is reasonable with a current ratio of 1.62. These figures show manageable leverage but limited cushion if rates stay high or contracts reset lower. We would monitor refinancing costs and term structures closely.
Valuation screens as inexpensive: P/E 9.35, EV/EBITDA 6.45, price to sales 0.89, and price to book 1.46. Net margin is 9.41% and ROE is 17.06%. Free cash flow yield is 1.18%. Two analysts rate it Buy with a 4.00 consensus, while the platform grade is B and HOLD. Company rating is B+ with a Neutral stance driven by leverage concerns.
What to Watch Into Earnings (Feb 12, 2026)
For GEO stock today, we watch secured-bed occupancy, community supervision growth, ICE renewal cadence, and any pricing commentary. Forecast markers show model paths of US$30.55 for 1-year and US$42.29 for 3-year scenarios, with long-run figures of US$53.99 to US$65.73. Treat these as scenario outputs, not guidance. Policy risk can shift these numbers quickly.
We in Canada should factor headline risk, ESG screens, and USD exposure. Registered accounts can reduce taxes but do not remove currency risk. GEO stock today trades below long-term averages, which keeps risk-reward tied to contract clarity. Set size limits, use alerts around the earnings date, and revisit thesis if renewal terms, rates, or utilization trend weaker.
Final Thoughts
GEO stock today is shaped by contract visibility and political headlines tied to the ICE controversy. Price action sits near the lower Bollinger band, below the 50-day and 200-day averages, while valuation looks modest with a single-digit P/E and EV/EBITDA near 6.5. Leverage is manageable but interest coverage is thin, so financing costs and renewal terms are key. Into February 12 earnings at 13:30 UTC, we suggest tracking occupancy, ICE renewals, and monitoring growth. For Canadians, keep USD volatility and ESG policies in mind. A simple plan is to size positions conservatively, set event reminders, and reassess if contract language or funding signals change.
FAQs
Why is GEO stock today reacting to the ICE controversy?
Public attention after the Minneapolis incident, plus comments from Megyn Kelly referencing Alex Pretti, raises scrutiny of immigration enforcement. That can shift detention demand and affect contract renewals, funding timing, and pricing. Markets are discounting the chance of tougher terms or delays, which weighs on sentiment until management provides clarity at earnings.
What key numbers define GEO stock today?
Shares are US$16.05, down 1.9% today, within a US$14.27 to US$32.25 52-week range. The 50-day average is US$16.46 and the 200-day is US$21.58. RSI is 48.32 with ADX at 12.26. P/E is 9.35, EV/EBITDA is 6.45, and interest coverage is 1.89, signaling modest valuation with funding watchpoints.
How do analyst views compare with platform grades?
Two analysts rate GEO a Buy with a 4.00 consensus. The platform grade is B with a HOLD suggestion, while the company rating is B+ and Neutral due to leverage concerns. For GEO stock today, that mix implies valuation support but a need for better clarity on renewals, cash flow, and debt service.
What should Canadian investors monitor before earnings?
Watch ICE renewal cadence, occupancy, and any rate or penalty clauses in contracts. Track monitoring services growth, cash flow conversion, and interest expense. For GEO stock today, also plan for headline risk and USD moves against CAD. Use alerts around February 12, 2026 at 13:30 UTC to react to new disclosures.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
