META Stock Today: January 29 Record Q4, AI Spend Guides Q1 Upside
Meta earnings took centre stage as shares of META jumped on record Q4 revenue and Q1 revenue guidance above consensus. The company also flagged a bold AI capex 2026 plan of $115–$135 billion. For UK investors, the key is how higher spending affects free cash flow, margins, and long‑term ad growth. META stock closed at $668.73, up 13.51% year to date, with a 52‑week range of $479.80 to $796.25 and a market value near $1.86 trillion.
Record Q4 and upbeat outlook
Meta earnings highlighted record Q4 revenue, stronger ad demand and improving monetisation across apps. Operating discipline stayed visible, with revenue per share at 75.27 on a trailing basis and net profit margin near 30.9% TTM. Investors welcomed the beat‑and‑raise stance as it suggested durable momentum into 2026.
Management’s Q1 revenue guidance topped consensus, supporting the Meta earnings narrative. The message: ad budgets are holding up, and engagement remains high. The focus shifts to execution on AI‑driven ranking and ads relevance, which management says should sustain conversion and pricing. We think upside now depends on stable user time and resilient SMB ad spend.
AI capex 2026 and margin implications
The AI capex 2026 blueprint calls for $115–$135 billion, aimed at model training, inference, and data centre scale. Meta earnings enthusiasm met investor caution as Big Tech spending drew mixed market reactions this week. Recent coverage shows investors punish heavy AI outlays when growth slows source.
Meta’s free cash flow yield is about 2.65% TTM, with capex to revenue near 33.1%. That leaves less room for buybacks if capex ramps quickly. The Meta earnings debate is whether AI returns arrive fast enough to offset dilution from spend. Context from earnings coverage shows shares can diverge when growth or efficiency disappoints source.
META stock: levels, valuation, and UK angle
META stock sits near the Bollinger upper band (upper 670.68) with RSI at 49.15 and ADX 28.2 indicating a firm trend. Price averages show 50‑day at 643.02 and 200‑day at 679.51, so the stock trades above the short‑term trend but just below the long‑term line. UK investors should consider US trading hours and currency effects when sizing positions.
On trailing metrics, Meta earnings support premium multiples for a mega‑cap with double‑digit revenue growth. Analyst sentiment skews positive: 2 Strong Buy, 65 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Dividend yield stands near 0.31% TTM. A composite rating marked B+ (Neutral) on 29 January 2026, reflecting strong returns on equity and assets but mixed valuation scores.
Catalysts, risks, and what to watch next
The next earnings date is 29 April 2026. Before then, we will watch ad pricing trends, Reels and video monetisation colour, and any updates on data‑centre build cadence tied to the AI capex 2026 plan. For Meta earnings momentum, stable ad demand from UK‑exposed global brands and SMBs would support the top line into Q2.
Main risks: slower ad budget recovery, regulatory actions across the UK and EU, and delays in AI model deployment that weaken return on spend. Higher capex could also pressure free cash flow and buybacks. For META stock, watch MACD momentum (histogram negative) and liquidity trends; volume stands above average, which can amplify moves after guidance shifts.
Final Thoughts
Meta earnings delivered a clean beat with Q1 revenue guidance above consensus, reinforcing ad strength while the AI capex 2026 plan sets a high bar for returns. For UK investors, we think the setup is balanced: healthy margins and analyst support against heavy spending that could trim near‑term free cash flow. Tactically, track price versus the 200‑day average and the Bollinger band, plus updates on capex pacing and ad pricing. Strategically, focus on evidence that AI improves ad relevance, lowers unit costs, and expands commerce across apps. If those drivers show through by April’s report, META stock could sustain gains despite investment headwinds.
FAQs
What stood out most in the latest Meta earnings?
Record Q4 revenue and Q1 revenue guidance that came in above consensus. Investors liked the beat-and-raise, pointing to solid ad demand and better monetisation across apps. The debate now shifts to how fast AI investments translate into revenue and margin gains over 2026.
How big is Meta’s AI capex 2026 plan?
Management outlined $115–$135 billion for 2026, focused on AI model training, inference, and data centres. That is a very large outlay, so the company needs clear productivity and monetisation benefits to support margins and free cash flow over the next year.
Is META stock expensive after the rally?
Valuation is above the market but supported by growth, strong profitability, and positive analyst coverage. Trailing free cash flow yield is about 2.65% and dividend yield is near 0.31%. Watch execution on AI and ad pricing to justify the premium over 2026.
What should UK investors watch before the next report?
Focus on ad pricing and conversion updates, capex pacing versus guidance, and any regulatory headlines in the UK and EU. Also track technicals around the 200‑day average and volume trends. The next earnings date is 29 April 2026, which is the key near‑term catalyst.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
