META Stock Today, January 31: Shares Jump on $115–$135B AI Capex
Meta share price is in focus today after a strong Q4 and a bold AI capex outlook of $115–$135 billion for 2026. Investors cheered faster ad growth and bigger investment in compute to train frontier models. We look at what this means for margins, valuation, and near‑term levels. For Australian investors, the stock trades in USD, so currency can sway returns. We break down the data and share practical watch points for the next leg.
Q4 beat and the AI capex signal
A Q4 beat, 24% year-on-year ad revenue growth, and a plan to invest $115–$135 billion in AI infrastructure set the tone. The spending aims to scale compute and speed model training, which can support long-term product gains. Meta share price tends to track ad demand and AI progress, so stronger execution can offset near-term cost worries. See coverage from CNBC and The Canberra Times for context: source, source.
Heavy buildout raises near-term depreciation and capex. Free cash flow per share is 18.29, while capex-to-revenue sits high, so discipline matters. Still, operating margin remains healthy, backed by 41.4% EBIT margin and a 30.1% net margin. If ad demand holds and AI tools lift engagement, Meta share price can absorb the spend while investors monitor expense cadence.
The stock trades on Nasdaq in USD, and local returns depend on AUD/USD at trade and settlement. US earnings usually post after US market close, which falls in the Australian morning. Liquidity sits in the US session. Meta share price gaps can occur between ASX hours, so set alerts and consider FX when sizing positions.
Valuation, earnings, and the Street view
Price is $668.73, between the 50-day average of $643.02 and the 200-day average of $679.51. The P/E is 31.46 on EPS of 23.47. Dividend is $2.10 per share, a 0.28% yield. Market cap is about $1.86 trillion. Meta share price is below the 52-week high of $796.25 and above the low of $479.80.
Coverage remains constructive: 2 strong buys, 65 buys, 6 holds, and zero sells, with a consensus Buy stance. Our Meyka Stock Grade is A with a BUY suggestion. Next earnings are due 29 April 2026 (US after hours). If guidance confirms AI milestones and cost control, Meta share price can sustain momentum.
We track AI product rollouts, ad budget trends, and monetisation progress in Reels and messaging. Expense run-rate versus compute targets will be key. Any clarity on unit costs and model efficiency can support valuation. Stronger conversion signals in ads and better engagement can underpin Meta share price through mid‑2026.
Technical levels and near-term trading setup
RSI at 49.15 is neutral, while ADX at 28.20 shows a firm trend. MACD histogram is negative, hinting at mixed momentum. Price is near the Bollinger upper band at 670.68, with today’s high at 677.68. A firm close above the band can invite trend followers. Meta share price may stall if it slips back inside the band.
Price sits above the 50-day average of 643.02 but slightly below the 200-day average of 679.51. ATR is 15.26, suggesting typical daily swings near that magnitude. The 52-week range is 479.80 to 796.25. Traders can frame risk with these markers as Meta share price tests the 200-day line.
Our baseline forecasts are $680.73 monthly, $714.21 quarterly, and $707.99 for the year. Longer-term marks are $899.55 in 3 years, $1,091.50 in 5 years, and $1,283.06 in 7 years. These are model outputs, not advice. Position sizing and FX exposure matter for Australians trading US-listed names like META.
Final Thoughts
We see two forces at work. First, revenue growth is firm, with ads up 24% year on year in Q4. Second, the AI buildout at $115–$135 billion for 2026 aims to scale compute and speed product gains, but it lifts near-term costs. Valuation sits at a P/E of 31.46, with strong margins and a modest 0.28% yield. Technicals show price near the Bollinger upper band and just under the 200-day average. Our take: confirm cost discipline each quarter, track AI product milestones, and watch ad demand. For Australians, plan around USD pricing and FX. Set alerts near $680 resistance and reassess after the next earnings update on 29 April 2026.
FAQs
Why did Meta share price jump today?
Investors reacted to a Q4 beat, 24% ad revenue growth, and a large 2026 AI capex plan of $115–$135 billion. Bigger compute guides to faster AI progress, which can lift engagement and monetisation over time. The market sees stronger growth potential, even with higher near-term spending.
Is Meta share price expensive at a 31x P/E?
At 31.46 times earnings, valuation is above the market average but supported by strong margins and growth. The key debate is whether AI and ad momentum can sustain earnings expansion. If margins hold and revenue grows, the multiple can stay stable. If growth slows, compression risk rises.
What are the key levels to watch on Meta share price?
Near term, watch the 200-day average around $679.51 and the Bollinger upper band near $670.68. The 52-week range is $479.80 to $796.25. A close above the 200-day average can support a push higher, while a break below the 50-day average at $643.02 weakens momentum.
How should Australian investors think about Meta share price?
The stock trades in USD on Nasdaq. Returns in AUD will vary with currency moves at trade and settlement. US earnings releases post after US close, which aligns with Australian mornings. Consider FX exposure, trading hours, and position sizing. Many local brokers offer access to US markets.
What could lift or weigh on Meta share price next?
Upside drivers include stronger ad demand, AI feature launches, and clearer efficiency gains in compute. Risks include rising depreciation from heavy capex, softer ad budgets, or slower monetisation in video and messaging. The next earnings update on 29 April 2026 should give fresh guidance on spending and growth.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
