GEO Stock Today: January 31 DHS Funding Fight, NYC Arrests Raise Risk
GEO stock today is in focus as the DHS funding debate and NYC protest arrests raise scrutiny on ICE oversight. The GEO Group (ticker GEO) closed at $15.98 (-2.20%), trading between $15.615 and $16.37, with a $2.22 billion market cap. Shares sit below the 50-day ($16.51) and 200-day ($21.46) averages and are down 49.21% year over year. With earnings on Feb 12, 2026, policy headlines heighten near-term renewal risk for ICE-related detention contracts.
Why the DHS funding fight raises renewal risk
Martha MacCallum’s exchange with Hakeem Jeffries put ICE oversight front and center following mass arrests of anti-ICE protesters in NYC, escalating political heat on detention policy. See the Fox News video and a Yahoo News clip. For GEO stock today, sharper hearings or budget riders can slow renewals, add operating conditions, or cap funded bed counts, elevating headline risk.
ICE-related detention remains a key revenue driver for GEO stock today. Budget outcomes that restrict detention funding or impose stricter standards can lower utilization or margins. Watch for language on detention bed levels, monitoring alternatives, and reporting requirements. A shutdown standoff can also delay payments or decisions, even if contracts remain in force, keeping headline risk elevated near term.
Political scrutiny usually broadens to private prison stocks beyond one company. Investors often re-rate the group on changes to funding, enforcement priorities, or compliance burdens. For GEO stock today, peer moves can amplify volatility, while any clear funding deal that stabilizes ICE operations may support sentiment across the group.
Price action and technical setup
GEO stock today closed at $15.98 with RSI at 48.32 and MACD slightly negative. ADX at 12.26 signals no strong trend, while price sits below the 50-day ($16.51) and 200-day ($21.46) averages. Bollinger Bands place the lower band near $15.82 and middle at $16.45, framing support and mean-reversion levels to monitor into the next headline cycle.
Average true range is $0.60, flagging moderate daily swings for GEO stock today. Volume was 1.71 million versus a 1.95 million average, and Money Flow Index at 29.45 hints at weak inflows. With the year low at $14.27 and the year high at $32.09, risk-reward skews around support at the lower band and resistance near the 50-day average.
Fundamentals and balance sheet check
At $15.98, GEO stock today trades at 9.17x TTM EPS ($1.69) and 0.87x sales, with EV/EBITDA near 6.42. Net margin is 9.41% and ROE stands at 17.06%. Price-to-book is 1.44 on book value per share of $10.99. These marks screen “value,” but the discount reflects policy, contract, and headline risk tied to ICE exposure.
Debt-to-equity is 1.07 and interest coverage is 1.89, while net debt/EBITDA is 2.54. Current ratio is 1.62, but free cash flow yield is low at 1.19% (price/FCF ~84x). For GEO stock today, this mix says balance sheet is serviceable, yet sensitive to any utilization dip or delayed payments if policy timelines stretch or shutdown risks rise.
Earnings are scheduled for Feb 12, 2026. Analysts show 2 Buys (consensus 4.00). A separate model grades GEO B+ with a BUY suggestion, while another company score is B+ but “Neutral.” For GEO stock today, soft 2024 growth metrics and headline risk argue for cautious positioning into results and contract updates.
Scenarios and watchlist for February
For GEO stock today, watch congressional talks on Homeland Security appropriations, ICE detention funding, and any oversight conditions attached to outlays. Committee hearings, agency guidance, and court actions on protest arrests could add headlines. Clearer budget language on detention beds or monitoring alternatives would reset expectations for renewal timing and facility utilization.
Key levels for GEO stock today: support near $15.82 (lower band) and $14.27 (year low); resistance near $16.45 (band mid) and $16.51 (50-day). ATR at $0.60 frames risk per share. Consider staged entries, defined stops below support, and smaller size into binary policy moments. Reassess after earnings and any DHS funding update.
Final Thoughts
GEO stock today sits at a policy crossroads. The DHS funding debate and NYC protest arrests push ICE oversight to the front page, lifting headline and renewal risk for detention contracts. Technically, shares trade below key moving averages with neutral momentum and moderate volatility. Fundamentally, valuation is lean, but leverage and thin free cash flow leave little room for prolonged utilization dips or delayed payments. Near term, we would track any budget riders on detention beds, monitoring alternatives, and reporting rules, plus the Feb 12 earnings call for utilization, receivables, and cash flow detail. Clearer funding signals could stabilize sentiment; mixed headlines would keep downside tests in play.
FAQs
How does the DHS funding debate affect GEO stock today?
It increases uncertainty around detention funding and oversight terms. Any budget riders that cap beds, add compliance costs, or prioritize alternatives to detention can pressure utilization or margins. Even without new law, louder hearings and media attention can slow renewals and drive volatility in GEO stock today.
What technical levels matter for GEO stock today?
Watch $15.82 (lower Bollinger Band) and $14.27 (year low) as support. Resistance sits near $16.45 (band mid) and $16.51 (50-day average). RSI at 48.32 is neutral, and ADX at 12.26 shows no strong trend. ATR of $0.60 frames typical daily risk per share.
Are GEO’s ICE detention contracts at risk?
They face higher headline and renewal risk when DHS funding is contested and ICE oversight tightens. Outcomes that cut funded beds or add operating conditions can reduce utilization. Shutdown dynamics can also delay decisions or payments, even if contracts remain active, keeping GEO stock today sensitive to policy news.
Is GEO stock today cheap on valuation?
At 9.17x earnings and 0.87x sales, it screens as value. However, leverage (debt-to-equity 1.07), low free cash flow yield, and policy exposure explain the discount. If funding clarity improves and utilization holds, the multiple could expand; if headlines worsen, the discount may persist.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
