BTCUSD Today February 01: Dollar Rebound, ETF Outflows Pressure Bitcoin
The bitcoin price today is under pressure as a stronger U.S. dollar drives risk-off flows and sparks talk of deeper losses. As traders watch BTCUSD, spot sits near $79,118.05, down 6.38%, after a week that briefly held $81,000–$84,000. Speculation around Kevin Warsh and a more hawkish Fed tone has lifted the greenback, while ETF outflows and over $650 million in liquidations added stress. For Australian investors, the USD move matters as it shapes local returns and sentiment.
What is driving today’s move
The dollar rebound is the core driver. A firmer USD often pressures crypto, and this week’s rise tracked speculation on a tougher Fed stance, including chatter around Kevin Warsh. That backdrop cooled risk appetite and aligned with bitcoin’s weekly slide. CoinDesk tied the timing to dollar dynamics, reinforcing the macro link between the two assets source.
Spot bitcoin ETFs have shown net outflows, adding supply into a weak tape. Earlier in the week, forced selling accelerated with more than $650 million in crypto liquidations, deepening declines. Mashable outlined how positioning and leverage can amplify down days, especially when the dollar firms or headlines spook risk source.
Technical levels and market structure
Price is near $79,118.05 with a day range of $75,644.15 to $84,138.00. It sits below the 50-day average at $89,813.60 and the 200-day at $104,526.08. Bollinger lower band is $84,208.69, so spot trades beneath it, showing stretched conditions. Yet RSI at 48.91 is neutral, while ADX at 25.89 signals a firm trend. MACD is -245.82 vs signal -967.46.
We see first support at $75,644.15, then $74,420.69, the 1-year low. Resistance sits at the former $81,000–$84,000 range, then the Bollinger middle band near $88,709.05. Keltner lower channel is $83,600.01. If momentum worsens, analysts warn a test of $70,000–$75,000 is possible before buyers step back. The bitcoin price must reclaim $84,000 to ease pressure.
What this means for Australian investors
For AUD-based portfolios, USD strength can reduce local returns even if the bitcoin price stabilises in dollars. We watch btc usd live feeds and AUDUSD moves together. Consider whether your platform offers AUD pairs or hedging tools. Local tax and timing also matter since crypto trades 24/7, including outside ASX hours, which can widen weekend spreads.
We prefer smaller position sizes and limited leverage while volatility stays high. ATR is 3,252.65, useful for sizing and stop placement. Some investors may dollar-cost average, but only with a long horizon. Model projections show $92,791 monthly, $95,894 yearly, and $120,797 in 3 years. These are not guarantees. Define risk, then trade the plan.
Final Thoughts
The bitcoin price reflects a macro tug-of-war: a stronger dollar, ETF outflows, and fragile risk appetite are pressuring spot, while stretched readings below Bollinger bands hint at near-term relief risk. We are tracking $75,644 and $74,421 as key downside levels and the $81,000–$84,000 area as first resistance. Reclaiming the mid-band near $88,709 would improve the picture, but the 50-day at $89,814 and 200-day at $104,526 remain hurdles. For Australian investors, FX swings add another layer to returns and risk. Keep sizes modest, avoid excessive leverage, and set stops using volatility guides like ATR. If sentiment stabilises and the dollar cools, rebounds can develop, but plans should assume diverse outcomes.
FAQs
Why is the bitcoin price falling today?
A stronger U.S. dollar has cooled risk appetite, while spot bitcoin ETFs saw outflows that added supply. Earlier this week, more than $650 million in liquidations amplified selling. Together, these factors weighed on demand and kept rallies capped around $81,000–$84,000.
What are the key levels to watch now?
Near-term support sits around $75,644, then $74,420, the 1-year low. Resistance is $81,000–$84,000, followed by the Bollinger middle band near $88,709. A daily close back above $84,000 would ease pressure. Losing $75,000 risks a deeper pullback toward the $70,000–$75,000 zone.
Is this a bitcoin crash or a normal pullback?
It looks like a sharp pullback driven by macro forces and positioning. Price trades below short and long-term averages, and sentiment is weak, but RSI is near neutral. If $75,000 holds and the dollar cools, a bounce is possible. A break lower could extend into $70,000–$75,000.
How should Australians approach bitcoin price risk today?
Keep positions small, avoid high leverage, and use volatility for stop placement. Consider AUD exposure, as USD strength can reduce local returns. Some investors may scale in gradually, but only with a long horizon and clear risk limits. Confirm levels with live data before acting.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
