What happens to the RBA cash rate if there is a hike today?

If the Board lifts the policy rate, the RBA cash rate would move to 3.85%. That keeps financial conditions restrictive and signals the Bank wants to contain underlying price pressures. Markets would likely push short-end yields higher, firm the Australian dollar, and reassess the timing of any future pause if Australia inflation proves sticky.

Will my mortgage repayments go up immediately after a hike?

Not necessarily. Many borrowers pay above minimums or face lender recalculations that occur with a lag, so scheduled repayments may not change right away. Over coming weeks, lenders can update minimums, which lifts repayments. Check your lender’s policy and your offset balance to see how quickly a change in RBA interest rates flows through.

Why are markets pricing a 72% chance of a hike?

Markets see underlying inflation edging higher and want the Bank to keep expectations anchored. A precautionary move reduces the risk of a later, larger response. Traders price this view into cash rate futures. If data soften convincingly, odds can shift quickly, but for now, RBA interest rates are expected to stay restrictive to cool demand.

How could a hike affect Australian shares and bonds?

Higher policy rates can pressure rate-sensitive sectors like REITs and consumer discretionary. Banks face a mixed backdrop, with slower credit growth but resilient deposits. In bonds, short maturities tend to sell off first, lifting yields. Portfolio adjustments often focus on shortening duration and stress-testing earnings for higher funding costs while monitoring RBA interest rates guidance.

Global Market Insights

RBA Today, February 03: Markets Put 72% Odds on Hike to 3.85%

ByDanny Kontos February 2, 2026

RBA interest rates take centre stage today, with markets assigning a 72% chance of a hike to 3.85%. Several economists back a precautionary move as underlying Australia inflation edges higher. If the Reserve Bank lifts the RBA cash rate, most variable borrowers may not see immediate mortgage repayments rise, softening the near-term hit to household cashflow. We explain what a move could signal for inflation, housing, and portfolios, and how investors in Australia can position if policy tightens again.