What exactly did the US threaten regarding Cuba?

The White House threatened tariffs on countries that supply oil or fuel to Cuba. Details like the tariff rate, scope, and start date are not public. Markets are treating it as a real risk because Mexico reacted and a Pemex cargo was canceled, with watchdogs indicating exports are paused for now.

How could this affect Canadian investors?

Canada can see second-order impacts through Gulf Coast pricing, tanker availability, and refinery margins. Higher freight or delayed cargoes can influence crack spreads and heavy crude benchmarks. That can affect valuations for Canadian energy firms and the Canadian dollar’s sensitivity to oil-linked moves, even without direct trade changes.

What is the status of US-Cuba negotiations?

The administration says it is talking with Cuban leadership. Talks could narrow or delay any action, or set conditions that reduce market stress. Until we see formal policy text, the market will price uncertainty, and firms will keep tighter compliance on trade, finance, and shipping linked to Cuba.

What should retail investors watch in the coming days?

Watch for any formal tariff notice, Mexico’s official updates, and movement in MR and aframax tanker rates. Monitor WCS–WTI differentials, Gulf Coast refinery utilization, and CAD and MXN volatility. Clear diplomatic progress would likely ease risk premiums, while broader measures would lift costs tied to Cuba-related cargoes.

Law and Government

February 02: Trump Cuba Oil Tariff Threat Sparks Talks, Mexico Alarm

ByHuzaifa Zahoor February 3, 2026February 3, 2026

Cuba oil tariffs are suddenly a live policy risk. The White House threatened tariffs on countries that ship crude or fuel to Cuba, and Mexico signaled alarm as Pemex canceled a recent cargo and exports reportedly paused. Trump also said Washington is now in talks with Havana. For Canadian investors, this raises near-term risks to Gulf Coast supply chains, tanker routes, FX swings, and regional assets. We outline what happened, the legal and trade angles, and how to position for potential volatility without chasing headlines.