What changed in the US-India trade deal?

The United States set a new 18% tariff on Indian goods and removed an extra 25% levy. That could lift Indian exports in categories like textiles, pharma, and engineering. Execution details still matter, including standards, customs classification, and any quotas or exemptions that might shape actual market access and timing.

Will fuel prices in Germany rise because of the deal?

The main risk is price volatility, not immediate shortages. If India buys less Russian oil, some barrels may reroute and reprice, affecting diesel and refinery margins. Venezuela’s limits slow a fast pivot. Watch Brent spreads, diesel crack margins, and freight costs to gauge pass-through to German pump prices.

How does this interact with the EU-India FTA?

The move adds momentum and competitive pressure but does not replace the EU-India FTA. For Germany, the FTA would set clearer rules on tariffs, standards, and data flows. Investors should track negotiation milestones, sector annexes, and any early-harvest measures that open market access ahead of a final deal.

Which German sectors stand to benefit first?

Machinery, autos, and chemicals could gain if Indian demand improves and standards align. Early signs include higher Indian tenders, faster certifications, and stable freight costs. Companies with strong service networks in India and lower energy intensity are best placed to capture orders while managing potential fuel price swings.

Law and Government

US–India Trade Deal, February 04: Tariff Cut to 18%, Oil Shift Risks

ByHuzaifa Zahoor February 4, 2026February 4, 2026

The US-India trade deal moves tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and drops an extra 25% levy. Markets now price a tariff reduction tailwind while weighing oil-shift risks if India curbs Russian purchases. New Delhi has not confirmed the oil pledge, so timing and scope remain unclear. For Germany, global trade links, EU-India FTA talks, and input costs matter. We break down winners, watchlists, and practical steps for portfolios focused on European exporters and energy exposure.