What is the New START expiration and why does it matter for markets?

It is the end of the last US–Russia strategic arms treaty. Without limits and inspections, signaling becomes harder and missteps more likely. Markets often add a risk premium, which can raise discount rates and pressure valuations. That makes headlines more powerful for day-to-day moves and supports a more cautious stance near key technical levels.

How could the treaty lapse affect Japan-based investors and the yen?

Risk-off episodes can strengthen the yen, which may reduce JPY returns on unhedged US assets. Decide on hedging based on your macro view and time horizon. If you expect stress, consider higher hedge ratios. If you expect calm, lower hedges can capture potential currency gains alongside equity exposure.

Which sectors may benefit or lag when geopolitical risk rises?

Defense, cybersecurity, and parts of energy often see interest when security risks rise. Gold-related assets can help cushion portfolios. Rate-sensitive growth may wobble if risk premia and real yields increase. Keep diversification, focus on balance-sheet quality, and avoid overconcentration in any single theme tied to the news cycle.

What are the key S&P 500 levels to watch after the New START expiration?

First supports are near the Bollinger mid-band at 6,866 and the 50-day average at 6,852. Resistance sits near 6,980 and the 7,002 high. ATR around 59 points frames daily swings. A close below the 50-day with rising volume would weaken the setup; a break above resistance would improve momentum.

Law and Government

^GSPC Today: February 6 — New START Lapse Lifts Geopolitical Risk

ByHuzaifa Zahoor February 6, 2026February 6, 2026

The New START expiration is now a market driver. On Feb 6, investors face higher nuclear-security uncertainty and signs of UN order erosion. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) trades at 6,939.02, down 0.43%, as risk premia edge higher. We outline why the nuclear treaty lapse matters, how technicals frame near-term moves, and what Japan-based investors can do this week to protect returns and manage exposure in yen terms.