What is the near-term Bulgaria GDP forecast after the euro change?

The OECD projects growth easing to 2.6% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 as domestic demand normalises and investment sequencing shifts. Euro adoption can support credibility and later investment, but the near-term trend is slower. Progress on productivity, governance, and public investment execution will shape outcomes.

How does Bulgaria euro adoption affect inflation and rates?

The OECD sees inflation around 2.7% in 2026. Euro adoption removes currency risk and aligns policy signaling with the ECB framework. If inflation tracks lower, real rates may rise and credit growth could cool. If price pressures persist, household demand and corporate margins face tighter conditions.

Why does OECD membership 2027 matter for investors?

Accession would anchor reforms on competition policy, integrity, and public governance. It can reduce policy risk and support better project selection and oversight. For investors, that could mean steadier cash flows, clearer regulations, and potentially tighter spreads on sovereign and high-grade bank paper over time.

Which sectors could benefit most from these shifts?

Transport, construction, and digital infrastructure may gain as EU-backed projects move and oversight improves. Logistics and exporters stand to benefit from rail and freight upgrades. Quality operators with strong governance, clean procurement exposure, and disciplined working capital should be better placed to capture growth.

Law and Government

Bulgaria Economy, February 07: OECD Flags Reforms After Euro Adoption

ByDanny Kontos February 7, 2026February 7, 2026

Bulgaria euro adoption on 1 January gives investors a clearer policy anchor, while the OECD’s latest survey signals slower growth and a firm reform push. The OECD projects GDP growth easing to 2.6% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, with inflation near 2.7% this year. We see policy credibility improving, but delivery on productivity and anti-corruption reforms will drive the next leg. For UK investors, stable currency risk is a positive, yet fiscal discipline and project execution remain critical watchpoints.