What did Estonia’s intelligence report say about Russia’s munitions output?

It estimated Russia produced about 7 million shells, mortars and rockets in 2025. That is a 55% increase from the prior year and roughly 17 times 2021 levels. The report also says imports from North Korea and Iran support supply, indicating sustained capacity for long-war needs and ongoing stockpile pressure in Europe.

How likely is a Russian attack on NATO before 2027?

Estonia assesses the NATO attack risk as low before 2027, citing stronger European defence investment and allied readiness. That lowers immediate tail risks for markets, though persistent military pressure means procurement is likely to continue. Investors should treat this as a multi-year planning horizon rather than a near-term crisis timeline.

What does this mean for UK retail investors?

Expect steady European rearmament to support order flow in munitions, air defence, drones, secure communications and sustainment. Watch UK budget statements, framework contracts and export approvals. Manage risks from FX, sanctions and programme delays. Diversifying across primes, sub-tier manufacturers and dual-use technology can spread exposure while keeping defence-linked growth.

How do Ukraine war munitions trends affect European demand?

High battlefield expenditure requires constant resupply and larger safety stocks. European buyers are likely to prioritise predictable, repeatable orders for shells, rockets, energetics and components. If Russia’s output and import support remain strong, procurement plans should stay firm to close gaps, stabilise inventories and improve readiness over several years.

Law and Government

February 11: Estonia Flags Russia Ammo Surge, Low NATO Attack Risk

ByDanny Kontos February 11, 2026February 11, 2026

Russia ammunition production is rising fast, according to Estonia’s intelligence service. The agency estimates Russia produced about 7 million artillery shells, mortars and rockets in 2025, up 55% year over year and roughly 17 times since 2021, supported by North Korean and Iranian imports. It also judges a NATO attack risk to be low before 2027. For UK investors, this mix points to steady European rearmament and procurement, plus ongoing geopolitical risk that can shape defence demand and valuations.