What did the grand jury decide, and why does it matter?

A D.C. grand jury declined to indict Sen. Mark Kelly and several Democrats over a video urging refusal of illegal orders. The decision removes near-term criminal exposure and likely cuts headline shock. For investors, that eases immediate volatility tied to arrests or court dates and refocuses risk on policy events.

Could the DOJ investigation reopen or shift?

The DOJ can continue reviewing evidence, seek new testimony, or pursue other theories. The grand jury’s decision means no indictment on the presented counts, including any seditious conspiracy angle. Future action would likely be narrower and more focused on speech-related issues, which carry different legal standards than criminal conspiracy.

How could the Hegseth censure ruling affect markets?

If a court limits penalties on lawmakers for speech tied to defense oversight, political risk premia may fall and short-dated volatility can ease. If the court backs strong discipline, oversight power could narrow, raising defense policy risk and increasing volatility around hearings, guidance updates, and appropriations headlines.

What should investors watch this week?

Monitor the court docket in the censure case, official DOJ statements, and committee schedules. Track options implied volatility in policy-sensitive sectors. Be ready to reprice if fresh filings revive the Mark Kelly grand jury theme. Keep position sizing flexible around expected rulings or orders.

Law and Government

Grand Jury Rebuffs Mark Kelly Case on February 11: Political Risk Signal

ByHuzaifa Zahoor February 11, 2026February 11, 2026

The Mark Kelly grand jury decision on February 11 paused a tense news cycle and trimmed near-term political risk. A D.C. panel declined to indict Sen. Kelly and five other Democrats over a video urging troops to refuse illegal orders. While the headlines cool, we see a second front. A court may soon review Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s planned censure or demotion of Kelly. That ruling could set speech rules for defense oversight. For investors, it shapes how to price defense policy risk and how much premium to keep in options tied to Washington news this week. Markets priced the Mark Kelly grand jury headline as relief, but they still face policy risk.