What did senate estimates reveal about the CGT discount?

Treasury secretary Jenny Wilkinson confirmed the department has modelled changes to the 50% CGT discount. That acknowledgement signals active work, not just commentary. No proposal has been released and the law has not changed. Investors should treat this as a rising policy watch point and prepare scenario analysis without making premature moves.

How could a change to the CGT discount affect my after-tax returns?

If the discount is reduced or eligibility tightens, the taxable portion of gains would rise, increasing tax payable when you sell. That changes the trade‑off between turnover and compounding and may shift focus to yield, costs, and holding periods. The exact impact depends on your marginal rate, asset mix, and timing of disposals.

What should investors do right now?

Update cost base records, map unrealised gains by holding period, and test three scenarios: no change, partial reduction, and tighter eligibility. Review distribution settings in trusts and managed funds. Avoid irreversible actions until official detail appears. Seek licensed tax advice before large disposals, and track credible senate estimates updates for any shift in probability.

When might policy changes take effect if announced?

Timing depends on Cabinet decisions, budget priorities, and legislation through Parliament. Some tax measures start on announcement, budget night, or a future income year. Until the government releases a proposal and the Parliament passes a law, dates remain uncertain. Plan for flexibility and align actions to confirmed milestones, not assumptions.

What role does Treasury modelling play in tax reform?

Modelling tests how different settings may affect revenue, behaviour, and distributional outcomes. It informs advice to ministers and helps shape options for budgets or consultation. While modelling does not decide policy, senate estimates disclosures that it exists indicate resources are allocated and the issue is live. Investors should treat that as a genuine risk signal.

Law and Government

February 12: Australia Senate Estimates Puts CGT Discount on Notice

ByDanny Kontos February 12, 2026February 12, 2026

Senate estimates put the 50% CGT discount squarely on notice after Treasury secretary Jenny Wilkinson confirmed Treasury modelling on possible changes. For Australian investors, any move on capital gains tax could shift after‑tax returns across property and equities. We outline what senate estimates signals, how scenarios may affect portfolios, and what to watch next. With no formal proposal yet, today’s focus is risk management, timing, and credible sources to track policy momentum.