What does Rakuten Mobile’s EBITDA profit mean for investors?

It signals improved scale and cost control, even as depreciation and interest remain heavy. EBITDA turning positive can support better cash conversion as coverage improves. Investors should watch if ARPU rises and churn falls, since these drivers are key to moving operating cash flow closer to breakeven.

How much capex is planned in 2026 and where will it be spent?

Management targets over ¥200bn in 2026, focused on urban corridors, subways, and indoor coverage. The aim is to improve reliability, boost ARPU, and lower churn. If quality rises, roaming and support costs can decline, helping overall margins and shortening the payback of recent network investments.

How is AI affecting Rakuten earnings today and next year?

Rakuten reports ¥25.5bn in FY2025 profit contribution from AI and targets roughly triple that impact in 2026. Savings and uplifts stem from better network planning, marketing, support automation, and fraud controls. These high‑margin gains can soften mobile losses during the heaviest phase of next year’s build‑out.

What could move the Rakuten share price in the near term?

Key drivers include ARPU momentum, churn levels, and evidence that indoor and subway coverage is improving on schedule. Updates on capex run‑rate, EBITDA margin, and any partnerships could also sway sentiment. Positive execution would likely improve perceptions of mobile cash burn and the group’s balance sheet resilience.

Global Market Insights

February 14: Rakuten Mobile hits EBITDA profit, eyes ¥200bn+ 2026 capex

ByHuzaifa Zahoor February 14, 2026

Rakuten deficit worries are back in focus as Rakuten Mobile hit 10 million lines and reported its first full‑year EBITDA profit. Management flagged heavier Q4 promotions that widened the non‑GAAP operating loss, while planning over ¥200bn in 2026 capex to fix urban and subway coverage and raise ARPU. We review how these moves could shape Rakuten earnings, what AI’s ¥25.5bn FY2025 profit lift means for 2026, and what retail investors in Japan should monitor next.