What does VIX today above 20 signal for the S&P 500?

VIX today above 20 signals a higher risk of larger daily swings and faster pullbacks. It also raises option premiums, making hedges costlier but more responsive. On its own, it is a caution flag, not a guarantee of a deeper drop. If VIX quickly retreats below 20, markets often stabilize. A sustained hold above 20 keeps correction risk elevated and argues for tighter risk controls and smaller positions.

How can I check the VIX futures curve and confirm backwardation?

Open your broker or data platform and compare the front-month VIX future to the second-month. If the front-month trades above the second-month and the M1–M2 spread is at or above zero for a full session or two, that is backwardation. Cross-check during the first and last 30 minutes, when liquidity is higher. Also watch whether an inverted curve aligns with weak breadth and heavy down volume, which strengthens the signal.

What is the tariff 15% impact on S&P 500 volatility and sectors?

A broad 15% tariff can lift input costs, add pricing uncertainty, and weigh on margins, which tends to raise S&P 500 volatility. Import-reliant sectors like retailers and autos may feel more pressure, while some domestically focused firms see less impact. Higher costs can slow capital spending for industrials. If currency moves and supply chains adjust, the shock can fade, but the first phase often brings wider trading ranges.

Global Market Insights

^GSPC Today, February 22: Tariff Hike to 15% Puts VIX Regime Shift on Watch

ByDanny Kontos February 23, 2026February 23, 2026

VIX today is back in focus after a surprise hike that lifts US import tariffs to 15%. The move has pushed fear gauges above the key 20 mark, a zone that often accompanies sharper intraday swings. US investors are watching the S&P 500 index ^GSPC at the open and the VIX futures curve for any turn toward backwardation that can confirm stress. Below we outline what matters for S&P 500 volatility, how to read curve signals, and practical steps for risk control.