Why did U.S. mortgage rates fall and is it likely to last?

Rates fell as bond markets priced softer inflation and a friendlier policy path. That pushed Treasury yields and mortgage-backed security yields lower. The move can last if inflation cools and growth moderates. A hot data run or hawkish central bank guidance could send yields up and reverse recent mortgage relief.

How does the 30-year mortgage rate affect UK markets?

It is a key signal for global risk appetite and U.S. housing activity. When the 30-year mortgage rate falls, Treasury yields often ease, which can pull gilts and GBP swap rates lower. That can support UK credit, offer relief to fixed-rate borrowers, and lift rate-sensitive stocks.

What does a surge in refinance applications mean for lenders?

A 4% weekly and 150% yearly rise in refinance applications boosts locks, improves capacity use, and can widen gain-on-sale margins. It also raises prepayment speeds for servicing portfolios. Lenders with strong hedging, liquidity, and secondary execution typically capture the most upside from a refi-led cycle.

Why are purchase applications down if rates improved?

Affordability is still tight, home prices are firm, and many buyers want stable quotes before committing. Inventory remains limited in many markets. Until rates hold near 6% for a while and incomes catch up, homebuyer demand may lag refinancing, keeping transaction volumes softer than rate moves alone suggest.

Global Market Insights

February 27: U.S. Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6%, Refi Jumps as Buyers Pause

ByDanny Kontos February 27, 2026February 27, 2026

U.S. mortgage rates today sit near or just below 6%, the lowest since 2022. That slide sparked a 4% weekly jump in refinance applications and a 150% rise year over year, while purchase applications fell 5%. For UK investors, this mix points to stronger fee income for U.S. mortgage lenders but slower housing turnover. We break down what the 30-year mortgage rate shift means for portfolios in GBP, sector exposure, and upcoming data that could move global yields.