What is driving the oil price today?

Geopolitical risk is the main driver. Markets are pricing a higher chance of disruption near the Strait of Hormuz due to US-Iran tensions. Tight market structure, with backwardation and lean inventories, magnifies moves. Together, these factors lift Brent’s risk premium and raise the floor for prices until uncertainty eases.

How high could Brent go if tensions worsen?

Analysts outline a wide range. A steady risk premium could support a move toward $80 per barrel. In a disruption scenario around Hormuz, temporary spikes toward $100 to $140 are possible. The magnitude depends on the duration of outages, inventory releases, shipping constraints, and policy responses from major producers.

What does this mean for UK investors and businesses?

Higher Brent can filter into fuel, freight, and some utility costs, increasing budget pressure. Investors may keep selective energy exposure but avoid concentration. Businesses with heavy fuel use can consider fixed-price contracts, caps, or staggered buying to manage volatility, while assessing US dollar exposure that often rises with crude.

Which indicators should I watch to gauge the next move?

Track tanker traffic and insurance rates around the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ supply signals, and weekly inventory data. Watch prompt versus six-month Brent spreads, options skew, and implied volatility. These measures show whether the risk premium is building or fading, and they often move ahead of headline price changes.

Global Market Insights

February 28: Oil Price Today — US‑Iran Risk Premium Lifts Brent

ByDanny Kontos March 1, 2026

Oil price today is firm as US-Iran tensions lift Brent’s geopolitical premium. Markets are pricing higher odds of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, while tight backwardation amplifies any shock. Barclays signals Brent could test $80, and ING estimates up to a $10 per barrel add-on if risks linger. With scenario paths stretching to sharp spikes, investors in the UK should reassess energy exposure, hedging costs, and currency impacts. We outline credible price ranges, the drivers to watch, and practical positioning ideas for today.