What are prediction markets and how do they make money?

These platforms let users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting implied odds. They earn revenue from trading fees, settlement or withdrawal fees, listing fees for new markets, and B2B data sales. As volumes and liquidity rise, fixed costs spread out and margins can improve.

What could push sector revenue to $10B by 2030?

Stronger rules from the CFTC, more mainstream on-ramps, bigger election cycles, and deeper liquidity can lift volumes. Partnerships with market makers, better uptime, and tiered fees help too. Data licensing to funds and media adds a second engine that scales without adding much transaction risk.

How does Kalshi regulation impact investors?

Clear decisions on what event contracts can list, who can access them, and how conflicts are managed reduce legal uncertainty. That can invite banks, brokers, and funds to participate or integrate data. Any limits on political events could shift activity toward economics and policy, changing revenue mix.

What risks should US retail investors watch in 2026?

Policy reversals, sudden de-listings, payment processor blocks, and tax changes can hit access and costs. Outages or wide spreads raise slippage. Be cautious with sensitive categories that may be restricted. Keep positions small, use limit orders, and follow official venue blogs for compliance updates.

Global Market Insights

Prediction Markets March 2: Citizens Bank Sees $10B by 2030 Outlook

ByHuzaifa Zahoor March 3, 2026March 3, 2026

Prediction markets are moving from niche to mainstream in the US. Citizens Bank forecasts $10 billion in annual revenue by 2030, up from a run rate above $3 billion today. We break down what this means for investors. Growth will depend on clear rules, platform execution, and data value. Kalshi regulation, Polymarket growth, and the ethics debate will shape outcomes. We highlight catalysts to watch, risks to price, and where the next wave of adoption may appear. US traders, policy watchers, and quant funds are paying attention. The path to mainstream finance is opening for prediction markets.