What did the US CPI February report show?

US CPI February rose 2.4% year on year and 0.3% month on month, while core inflation printed 2.5% year on year, matching forecasts. Markets read it as steady progress on disinflation. However, an oil spike could lift headline prints in coming months, keeping policy uncertainty and FX volatility elevated.

Why does an oil shock matter for Australia?

Australia imports fuel, so higher oil can lift local petrol prices, squeeze household budgets, and raise tradables inflation. That can delay RBA easing hopes and shift sector performance on the ASX. Airlines and discretionary retailers may face pressure, while energy producers and some miners can see relative support.

Is the Fed likely to stay on hold?

Given steady inflation but rising energy risks, the Fed is likely to stay on hold while it studies how fuel costs pass through to prices. Clearer progress on services inflation may be needed before cuts. That stance can keep US yields and the USD sensitive to each data point and headline.

How can traders use forex factory during this period?

Use the forex factory calendar to line up US releases, Fed communications, and oil-related events. Plan entries around data windows, scale position size to volatility, and set OCO orders. Track oil, US yields, and USD together for confirmation. Review trades after each print and update levels and stops.

Global Market Insights

Forex Factory March 12: US CPI steady as oil shock clouds Fed path

ByDanny Kontos March 12, 2026March 12, 2026

Forex factory traders woke to a steady US CPI print and rising oil risk. US CPI February rose 2.4% year on year and 0.3% month on month, with core at 2.5%. That looks calm, but the oil shock may lift inflation into March and April. For Australia, this shapes AUD moves, sector rotations on the ASX, and rate views. We explain the setup, why the Fed may stay on hold, and how local traders can act.