Why are Canadian bond yields rising right now?

Bond yields reflect inflation expectations and policy odds. A sharp move in oil can lift gasoline prices and shipping costs, which raises inflation risk. Investors then demand higher yields to compensate. As U.S. Treasury yields climb on similar concerns, Canadian bond yields often follow due to deep trade and financial links. That is what we are seeing today.

How could the March Bank of Canada rate decision affect my mortgage?

The Bank of Canada sets the overnight rate, which drives variable mortgages and lines of credit. Markets expect a hold on March 18. Fixed mortgage rates in Canada move with Government of Canada bond yields, not directly with the overnight rate, so they have already increased as yields rose. Renewal and pre-approval strategies should reflect that gap.

Should I go fixed or variable if canada interest rates stay on hold?

If yields remain high, five-year fixed payments may be pricier than some variable options, but they provide certainty during market swings. If you value stability and budget control, a shorter fixed term or hybrid can work. If you can handle payment changes and believe inflation will ease, a variable or adjustable rate may save over time.

Global Market Insights

Canada Interest Rates March 12: Oil Shock Lifts Yields, BoC Seen on Hold

ByHuzaifa Zahoor March 12, 2026March 12, 2026

Canada interest rates are back in focus after an oil-led jump in North American yields. A geopolitics-driven spike in crude is reviving inflation worries, nudging Canadian bond markets to price fewer cuts in 2025 and some hike risk into 2026. We expect the Bank of Canada rate decision on March 18 to hold steady, while fixed mortgage rates in Canada edge higher. For households and investors, this shift affects borrowing costs, bond returns, and spring housing plans across the country.