What is Kalshi and how do prediction markets work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-based exchange for event contracts. Traders buy yes or no contracts that settle at 1 or 0 based on a defined outcome, such as whether inflation ends above a level. Prices between 0 and 1 reflect the market’s implied probability. When liquidity is strong and rules are clear, prediction markets can react faster than polls. We use them as a live gauge of consensus odds, then confirm with futures, options, and official data.

Can investors in Germany trade on Kalshi?

Access is limited by jurisdiction and compliance rules, so many German investors cannot trade on Kalshi. The safer path is to use Kalshi probabilities as information and express views through EU-listed instruments like ETFs, futures, or stocks. We suggest building a watchlist of key events and comparing Kalshi odds with futures-implied probabilities. Always check your firm’s compliance guidance and local laws before seeking access to any event contracts platform.

Why do media partnerships with CNN and CNBC matter?

When CNN and CNBC display Kalshi probabilities next to stories, the data reaches a far wider audience. That visibility can attract liquidity, which can improve pricing and speed. It also helps viewers compare market-implied odds with analyst opinions. We expect more consistent labels, timestamps, and definitions on screen. This can reduce confusion and make probabilities easier to use in daily decisions, from portfolio tilts to risk checks.

What are the main risks to Kalshi’s business model?

The biggest risk is regulation. Ongoing U.S. class actions and policy debates could restrict certain event types or add costs. Liquidity concentration is another risk, since thin markets can distort odds. Media use also creates interpretation risk if viewers treat probabilities as certainties. To manage these issues, we look for clear contract rules, strong market-making, and transparent reporting. Even with limits, high-quality probability data can still add value.

Global Market Insights

Kalshi on December 22: $11B Valuation and CNN/CNBC Data Deals Push Prediction Markets Mainstream as 

ByHuzaifa Zahoor December 23, 2025December 23, 2025

Kalshi is in focus after a $1 billion Series E at an $11 billion valuation, roughly €0.92 billion and €10.1 billion. With fresh data partnerships with CNN and CNBC, prediction markets could reach a far wider audience. We explain what Kalshi’s momentum means for investors in Germany, how media integrations may shape expectations, and why regulation still matters. We also highlight co-founder Luana Lopes Lara’s growing profile and outline practical ways to use market-implied probabilities without taking undue risk.