What is Kalshi and why does it matter for CPI predictions?

Kalshi is an event trading platform where prices reflect the odds of outcomes, such as US CPI results. It launched a research arm and opened data to academics. The firm says its CPI markets beat Wall Street by about 40% one week out. If confirmed, this could improve inflation forecasts used by investors.

How can German investors use these signals without trading on Kalshi?

Treat Kalshi odds as a market-based indicator. Use them to adjust timing and size of positions in Bund futures, EUR exposure, and DAX sector tilts around CPI days. Combine with euro-area data and options hedges. Keep position sizes modest, and verify impact through a simple, rules-based playbook.

Do prediction markets always beat economist surveys?

No. Prediction markets can react faster to new information, but they do not always outperform surveys. The reported 25-month edge is promising yet short. Results can change with liquidity, regime shifts, or data surprises. Use multiple inputs, such as market pricing, surveys, and models, to avoid overreliance on one source.

What are the main risks of using CPI market odds?

Key risks include a small sample, changing inflation dynamics, and basis differences between US CPI and euro-area HICP. Liquidity around releases can distort prices. Access limits in the EU mean you may only observe, not trade. Manage risk with predefined stops, small sizes, and post-event reviews.

Global Market Insights

December 24: Kalshi Debuts Research as CPI Markets Beat Wall Street

ByHuzaifa Zahoor December 24, 2025December 24, 2025

Kalshi has launched a research arm and opened its prediction markets data to academics, saying its CPI predictions beat Wall Street consensus by about 40% over the last 25 months when measured a week before releases. For German investors, better inflation forecasts can sharpen views on ECB policy, Bund yields, the euro, and DAX sector moves. If this edge holds, traders may rely more on market-based signals to prepare for key prints through 2026. We explain the impact, limits, and how to apply it today.