Samir Arora Claims Nifty’s 11.8% USD CAGR Since 1998 Outperforms Gold and S&P 500
When we talk about long‑term investing, people often compare major asset classes like stocks, gold, and global markets to find the best wealth creators. Recently, veteran fund manager Samir Arora brought attention to one striking statistic: Nifty’s USD‑adjusted long‑term returns have outpaced both gold and the S&P 500 over nearly three decades. His data has sparked renewed interest in how Indian equities stack up globally and against traditional stores of value like gold.
What Does 11.8% USD CAGR Mean?
- USD Measurement: Returns are measured in US dollars, helping global investors compare Nifty with other markets fairly.
- Nifty 50 TRI Reference: The figure refers to the Nifty 50 Total Return Index, which includes dividends.
- Time Frame: Calculation starts from December 31, 1998, and goes until 2025.
- Growth Rate: The average growth rate works out to 11.8% per year in USD terms.
- Practical Meaning: $1,000 invested in 1998 would have grown nearly 20 times in value in USD by 2025
How Has Nifty’s Performance Looked Over Time?
- Time frame: 1998 to 2025, showing the power of long-term compounding.
- Total Return: Nifty 50 TRI delivered 1,922% total return in this period.
- Annualized Growth: Works out to ~11.8% CAGR in USD terms.
- Currency Effect: Accounts for Indian rupee depreciation vs USD, making it fair for global comparison.
- Practical Impact: $1,000 invested in 1998 could have grown nearly 20 times in USD by 2025.
Comparing Nifty’s Returns With Gold and the S&P 500
Gold
- Gold is a traditional safe haven and wealth protector.
- From 1998 to 2025, gold delivered around 10.74% CAGR in USD.
- Nifty’s 11.8% USD CAGR outperformed gold over the long term.
S&P 500
- Benchmark for US equities and global stock markets.
- Returned around 8.57% CAGR in USD over the same period.
- Nifty’s USD returns exceed the US benchmark by a significant margin.
Summary Comparison
- Nifty: 11.8% USD CAGR
- Gold: ~10.7% USD CAGR
- S&P 500: ~8.6% USD CAGR
- Indian equities have been standout performers long term.
Why Nifty’s Long-Term Outperformance Matters
- India’s Economic Growth: Fastest-growing major economy since the late 1990s, boosting corporate earnings and stock markets.
- Rising Equity Participation: More domestic and global investors; growth of mutual funds, ETFs, and retirement accounts.
- Corporate Reforms and Policies: Market liberalization and reforms attracted foreign capital, improving valuations.
- Dividends and Total Returns: Using TRI (includes dividends) gives a complete picture of investor gains.
Short-Term Trends & 2025 Updates
- Gold: Surged ~74.5% in 2025 alone.
- Silver: Jumped ~138%, outperforming most stock indices.
- Nifty 50: Returned ~9.4% in 2025.
- Takeaway: Nifty’s long-term record is strong, but short-term market moves can differ significantly.
What This Means for Investors
- Diversification Helps: No single asset wins every year; a mix of stocks, gold, and other assets smooths returns.
- Long-Term Perspective Matters: Holding for 10–25+ years reduces volatility and rewards patience. Nifty’s data supports this.
- USD Terms for Global Investors: Measuring returns in USD gives a clearer global perspective.
Potential Criticisms & Risks
- Past Returns Are Not Guarantees: Nifty’s past CAGR may not repeat in the future.
- Currency Effects: Rupee fluctuations can impact USD returns dramatically.
- Short-Term Volatility: Markets can drop sharply, especially during crises or economic shocks.
Conclusion
We see that Nifty’s long‑term performance in USD terms, roughly 11.8% CAGR since 1998, has indeed outpaced both gold and the S&P 500 on a long horizon, according to Samir Arora’s recent analysis. Yet it’s important to look at investing with balance. Short‑term trends, diversification, risk tolerance, and financial goals all matter. Nifty’s strong track record makes it a compelling case for long‑term equity exposure, but rounding your portfolio with assets like gold or international stocks can still make sense depending on your goals.
In the end, smart investing is about information, patience, and balance, and Nifty’s performance story gives us plenty to think about for the next decade.
FAQS
It means the Nifty 50 Total Return Index (including dividends) has grown at an average of 11.8% per year in USD from 1998 to 2025.
Over the same period, gold returned ~10.7% and the S&P 500 ~8.6% in USD, making Nifty the strongest performer long term.
Measuring in US dollars removes currency effects, allowing global investors to compare returns fairly.
No. Past performance shows trends but does not guarantee future results, and short-term volatility can affect outcomes.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
