BTCUSD Today, December 31: Fed Minutes Split Keeps April Cut in Play
Fed minutes are driving today’s conversation as a split December vote keeps an April cut in play. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and U.S. equities often react first to shifts in policy odds and liquidity. We outline what the latest fomc minutes mean, how T‑bill buying may support reserves, and which price levels matter now. We also track the S&P 500, since cross-asset moves can influence crypto risk appetite in the U.S. session.
What the Split Fed Minutes Mean for Markets
The committee voted 9–3 for the December cut and signaled caution on the path ahead. Minutes also noted a restart of T‑bill purchases to keep bank reserves ample, a supportive backdrop for liquidity-sensitive assets. This split tone keeps policy flexible while easing funding stress. See coverage here: CNBC and New York Times.
Traders nudged April rate cut odds higher after the fed minutes. The dot plot still leans cautious, reminding us that future easing is data dependent. That mix tends to cap front-end yields without promising a fast cycle. For markets, steadier short rates and growing reserves can lift risk appetite, yet a slower schedule keeps volatility alive if data surprise.
Bitcoin’s Setup: Price, Levels, and Technicals
BTC trades at $87,299.60, with an intraday range of $87,290.98 to $89,012.41. It sits below its 50-day average at $90,483.28 and well under the 200-day at $107,183.98. RSI is 43.63, suggesting neutral to soft momentum. The Bollinger middle band is $89,020.56, lower band $84,260.62, and upper band $93,780.50. ATR is $3,632, flagging wide daily swings.
Bitcoin tends to respond to liquidity pulses. The fed minutes hint at steady reserves thanks to T‑bill buying, which can support risk appetite. A higher chance of an April cut lowers discount rates and can aid multiples on risk assets. Watch the 50-day average near $90,483 as first resistance and the lower band near $84,261 as support if sentiment sours.
S&P 500 Check: Correlation and Risk Tone
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) prints 6,858.91, off 46.83 on the day, with a high of 6,901.42. It sits above the 50-day average at 6,795.70 and the 200-day at 6,274.31. RSI is 56.89, while ATR is 60.08. Bollinger bands show a middle near 6,855.45, upper 6,959.10, and lower 6,751.80. Trend strength remains modest.
If equities hold near highs while front-end yields drift lower, crypto can find a bid. The fed minutes support a patient stance, keeping rate cut odds alive without promising a sprint. For BTC, sustained closes back above the Bollinger middle and the 50-day average would be constructive, while breaks toward the lower band argue for tighter risk controls.
Final Thoughts
Here is our playbook. The fed minutes keep April easing plausible and add a reserves cushion via T‑bill purchases. That mix is supportive for liquidity-sensitive assets, but the split tone means data still rule. For Bitcoin, watch $90,483 as near resistance and $89,021 as a pivot. A push toward $93,781 would test the upper band, while $84,261 marks key support. For the S&P 500, holding above the 50-day average supports a constructive backdrop for crypto. We would size positions for a $3,600 daily ATR in BTC and trim leverage into resistance. Stay nimble around macro headlines that could shift rate cut odds quickly.
FAQs
They update how the Fed views growth, inflation, and liquidity. A split but cautious tone keeps April cut odds alive and supports ample reserves through T‑bill buying. Lower expected rates and steadier funding can lift risk appetite, which often helps Bitcoin in the near term, though reactions can still be volatile.
We are watching the Bollinger middle band near $89,021 as a pivot, the 50‑day average near $90,483 as first resistance, and the upper band near $93,781. On the downside, the lower band around $84,261 is key support. These levels help plan entries, stops, and profit targets.
They show the committee’s balance of risks. A split but cautious message keeps flexibility for April without promising fast easing. That nudges rate cut odds higher if incoming data cool. Traders adjust positions across bonds, equities, and crypto based on how likely and how soon cuts appear.
The dot plot summarizes each official’s expected policy rate path. When it leans cautious, it tempers hopes for rapid cuts even if markets price some easing. Investors reconcile dots with data. If data soften while dots stay cautious, assets can whipsaw as pricing converges toward the eventual policy path.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
