ASML Stock Today: Cantor Lifts PT to €1,300 on AI Outlook — January 01
The ASML price target debate is front and center after Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its call to €1,300 and kept Overweight, citing resilient AI chip demand into 2026. For US investors in ASML, the focus is how AI-driven orders, China exposure, and technicals align. Our latest feed shows the stock at $1,069.86, up 48.31% year to date, with a 12-month high of $1,141.72. Below, we break down implications for the ADR, levels to watch, and the next catalysts that could move the tape.
What Cantor’s €1,300 Call Means for US Investors
Cantor’s €1,300 ASML price target sits above current US ADR targets, where the median stands at $1,140, the high at $1,200, and consensus at $1,045. Currency matters, so do not compare euro and dollar targets one-to-one. Still, the signal is clear. Analysts expect strength in lithography demand as leading-edge capacity expands for AI and high-performance compute.
Cantor’s thesis leans on AI infrastructure spend, while Citi flags AI as the key 2026 catalyst for semi equipment orders. That supports elevated EUV and High-NA demand, with legacy DUV staying relevant for trailing nodes. See coverage from Yahoo Finance source and MSN’s Citi note source.
Cantor’s €1,300 ASML price target refers to Amsterdam-listed shares. The US ADR trades in dollars and embeds exchange-rate effects. FX swings can widen gaps between euro-based targets and US pricing. When mapping targets, focus on the reasoning and shipment assumptions rather than forcing a strict euro-to-dollar translation.
Today’s Setup: Price, Technicals, and Key Levels
Our latest quote shows $1,069.86, down 0.21% on the day, above the 50-day average $1,052.99 and the 200-day $841.65. RSI is 52.63, a neutral read, while ADX at 17.03 suggests no strong trend. The MACD histogram sits at -4.38, indicating soft momentum that could improve if buyers reclaim recent highs.
Near-term support sits around the 50-day average at $1,052.99 and the Bollinger lower band near $1,021.95. Resistance lines up at the 12-month high $1,141.72 and the Bollinger upper band at $1,147.27. Today’s intraday range printed $1,068.92 to $1,080.54. A close above the middle band $1,084.61 would aid a constructive setup.
ATR is 27.32, pointing to wide daily swings that favor staged entries. Stochastic at 46.23 and MFI at 57.56 are mid-range. Watch for a MACD signal-line catch-up if buying broadens. A push through $1,141-$1,147 could invite trend followers, while loss of $1,022 would likely trigger risk control for short-term traders.
China Watch: DUV Retrofits and 2025 Mix Risk
Reports of China DUV upgrades and retrofits keep export compliance in focus. While ASML sells DUV under current rules, unauthorized modifications could alter the risk profile. Investors should separate policy chatter from confirmed enforcement actions and evaluate any impact on the pace of tool shipments and services revenue.
Management has guided to a sharp 2025 China revenue drop, which makes non-China orders and backlog conversion key watch points. Track bookings mix, High-NA EUV shipment timing, and any updates on field upgrades. Monitoring enforcement developments and customer commentary will help gauge the true effect of China DUV upgrades.
We view China as a manageable risk within a broader AI-led upcycle. Position sizing should reflect regulatory uncertainty while allowing exposure to core EUV drivers. Scenario-test downside tied to China revenue mix and upside from AI accelerators and memory spending. Revisit the ASML price target framework as new data emerges.
What’s Next: Catalysts Into Q1 2026
The next scheduled earnings is on January 28, 2026. We will focus on orders, book-to-bill, backlog quality, and commentary on EUV and High-NA ramps. Any updates on installation lead times, services growth, or supply chain constraints could shift the near-term ASML price target debate.
Current ratings show 15 Buy, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell. US ADR price targets cluster around $1,045 consensus and $1,140 median, with a high at $1,200. Against that backdrop, Cantor’s call adds confidence that AI chip demand can sustain spending into 2026, supporting a constructive ASML price target path.
For active investors, consider partial entries on dips near the 50-day average, with risk defined below the lower Bollinger band. For long-term holders, a 12- to 24-month view aligned to AI capacity builds may fit. Reassess the ASML price target after earnings, China updates, and any notable changes in backlog mix.
Final Thoughts
Cantor’s €1,300 call underscores how AI chip demand can extend ASML’s cycle into 2026, while Citi’s view reinforces that AI is the primary equipment catalyst. For US investors, the takeaways are clear. Track orders, EUV and High-NA shipments, and China revenue mix. On the chart, support sits near the 50-day average at $1,052.99, with resistance around $1,141-$1,147. Use staged entries and clear stops given an ATR of 27.32. Into January 28 earnings, updated bookings and backlog quality will guide any change to your ASML price target. Stay flexible on position size until export headlines and order trends provide more clarity.
FAQs
Cantor Fitzgerald raised its ASML price target to €1,300 and reiterated an Overweight rating, pointing to durable AI-driven equipment demand into 2026. The target is quoted in euros for the Amsterdam listing. US ADR holders should focus on the thesis and shipment assumptions rather than forcing a direct euro-to-dollar conversion.
AI training and inference need leading-edge logic and advanced memory. That drives orders for EUV and, increasingly, High-NA systems, while DUV still supports trailing nodes. If hyperscaler capex stays strong, ASML’s bookings and backlog can hold up, supporting a higher ASML price target over a 12- to 24-month horizon.
ASML flagged a sharp 2025 revenue drop from China, and reports of DUV retrofits add regulatory uncertainty. The main risks are tighter enforcement, slower tool approvals, and potential delays in services or upgrades. Watch bookings mix, backlog conversion, and any management updates on compliance and field modifications.
RSI at 52.63 is neutral, and ADX at 17.03 suggests no strong trend. Price sits above the 50-day average $1,052.99 but below the upper Bollinger band $1,147.27. Short-term traders may lean constructive above $1,085 and cautious below $1,022, adjusting risk as momentum and volume confirm moves.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
