Why did nengajo 2026 volumes fall so much?

More people used social apps and e-cards, while younger users rarely buy physical cards. Older senders trimmed lists. Retail card prices also rose, and convenience stores promote digital options. Together, these shifts pushed physical greetings down sharply for nengajo 2026.

How does this affect Japan Post mail volume and revenue?

Seasonal cards once drove a high-volume, low-margin spike that improved network utilization. With volumes down about a quarter, unit costs rise unless routes and shifts shrink. That puts pressure on mail revenue and may prompt pricing, product, or service changes to protect margins.

Which sectors could feel the impact beyond the post office?

Printers lose short-run jobs, paper makers sell less specialty stock, and delivery contractors see fewer letter drops. Packaging and parcels can offset some volume, but the seasonal greeting-card gap is hard to fill. Suppliers with heavier exposure to Japan will feel it first in Q1.

What should Hong Kong investors watch next?

Monitor company guidance for volume and pricing, early Q1 order books at printers, and any postal surcharges. Track parcel growth, locker deployments, and digital notices. Currency moves between HKD and JPY also matter for import costs, translated earnings, and hedging decisions.

Global Market Insights

January 02: Japan New Year Cards Fall ~26-30%, Mail Revenue at Risk

ByHuzaifa Zahoor January 1, 2026January 1, 2026

Japan New Year cards decline is accelerating in 2026. Nationwide deliveries are near 363 million, about 26% lower year on year. In the Tokai region, about 31.02 million were delivered, roughly a 30% drop, while Shizuoka saw 9.2 million, down 27.5%. This shift to digital greetings squeezes Japan Post mail volume and raises questions over letter-mail pricing. For Hong Kong investors on January 2, the signal is clear: softer demand may spill into paper, printing, and last-mile services linked to nengajo 2026, with margin risks if fixed costs cannot flex.