Are blackouts likely in Ecuador in early 2026?

Near‑term blackouts look unlikely. Reservoirs are improving, thermal units are online, and Colombia electricity imports help fill the gap. Still, conditions can change with weather or maintenance issues. We suggest monitoring daily grid updates and rainfall trends to gauge whether the Ecuador power deficit is narrowing.

What causes the 866 MW electricity deficit?

The deficit reflects lower hydro output after dry periods, limited thermal availability during maintenance, and demand that recovers faster than supply. Imports can offset part of the gap. The balance will improve if rains continue, more thermal units return, and demand growth stays moderate.

How does Petroecuador’s lower output affect power and budgets?

A 2025 drop in Petroecuador production weakens cash flow and can increase fuel import needs. That lifts generation costs when thermal plants run more. It also adds fiscal strain at a time the grid needs investment, increasing the chance of selective 2026 tax or tariff actions.

What should German investors watch next?

Track reservoir levels, thermal unit availability, and Colombia electricity imports. Review Petroecuador production guidance and any tax or tariff proposals. On markets, watch Ecuador sovereign spreads and funding costs. Confirm supplier backup power and delivery clauses to limit disruption if the Ecuador power deficit lasts longer.

Global Market Insights

Ecuador Power Grid: 866 MW Deficit, Blackouts Unlikely — January 7

ByDanny Kontos January 7, 2026January 7, 2026

Ecuador power deficit is the key energy risk to watch this week. As of January 7, the system shows an 866 MW shortfall, yet near‑term blackouts look unlikely. Higher reservoir levels, added thermal units, and Colombia electricity imports are easing stress. For German investors, the focus is on operating costs, sovereign risk, and supply chain stability. We outline what the gap means, how Petroecuador production and fiscal policy link to power, and the indicators to track in Q1 2026.