What did Australia CPI November 2025 show?

Australia CPI November 2025 rose 3.4% year on year, while trimmed mean inflation printed 3.2%. Both were below forecasts, easing market pressure on the RBA. The reading is still above the 2% to 3% target, so policy makers want more evidence of sustained progress before declaring victory.

How does the CPI result affect RBA rate hike odds?

The softer CPI lowers near‑term pressure but keeps a February hike as a live risk. Markets fully price a 25 bp move by mid‑year, pending the end‑January quarterly CPI. If core inflation cools further, the RBA may hold. A hot print could bring forward tightening.

Which ASX sectors benefit most from softer inflation?

Growth and rate‑sensitive stocks, such as technology, usually benefit as yields fall and duration lifts. Quality defensives can also gain as earnings visibility improves. Banks may lag if margin pressure rises with lower rate expectations, while energy can soften if weaker growth signals weigh on oil.

What levels matter for the ASX benchmark now?

Traders are watching the Bollinger middle band near 8,665 as first support and the upper band around 8,797 as resistance. ATR near 67 points suggests a typical intraday range. A close above resistance could extend momentum, while a break below support risks a deeper pullback.

Global Market Insights

^AXJO Today, January 07: ASX Rises as CPI Undershoots, RBA Odds in Focus

ByDanny Kontos January 7, 2026January 7, 2026

Australia CPI November 2025 slowed to 3.4% year on year, with trimmed mean inflation at 3.2%, both under forecasts. ASX today firmed as the softer print eased RBA rate hike odds, though inflation still sits above the 2% to 3% target band. Tech led early gains while banks trailed. Traders now look to the end‑January quarterly CPI for a more stable read before the February RBA meeting. Positioning stays data‑driven with a focus on rates, growth, and sector rotation.