Reliance Industries Shares Drop 8% in 2026: Is It a Good Time to Buy Ahead of Q3 Results This Friday?
Reliance Industries shares have started 2026 on a weak note. The stock is down nearly 8% so far this year. This fall has surprised many investors. Reliance is India’s largest listed company and a key market leader. Even small moves in its share price matter a lot.
Now, the focus is on one important event. Reliance Industries will announce its Q3 FY26 results on Friday, January 16, 2026. This has raised a big question on Dalal Street. Is the recent fall a warning sign, or is it creating a fresh buying opportunity?
Several factors are shaping sentiment. Global oil prices are unstable. Retail demand looks uneven. At the same time, telecom and refining businesses remain strong on paper. Analysts are divided. Some see value after the correction. Others advise caution before earnings.
For investors, timing matters. Buying before results can bring quick gains or sharp losses. This makes the current setup important. Understanding the context behind the fall is key before making any decision.
What Caused the 8% Slide in Reliance Shares?
Reliance Industries’ shares have been under pressure at the start of 2026. The stock has fallen about 8% year‑to‑date as of January 12, 2026. The drop wiped out roughly $15 billion (₹1.3 trillion) in market value in the first weeks of the year.
One key reason is investor concern about weak retail demand. Several major Indian retailers recently reported slower sales, sparking fear that Reliance’s retail arm might face similar softness.
Another issue is geopolitics. A Bloomberg report linked Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery to Russian crude shipments. The company denied the claims, but the market reacted sharply.
Global trade tensions and talk of tariffs tied to Russian oil also spooked traders. Uncertainty around policy and energy flows tends to push stock prices lower before facts are clarified.
Technical factors added fuel to the slide. The stock dipped below key moving averages, triggering automated selling by short‑term traders. The combination of macro fears, headline risk, and technical breakdown made the recent sell‑off steeper than many expected.
What Analysts are Saying Ahead of Reliance Q3 Results?
Despite the pressure, many research houses remain positive on Reliance before its Q3 FY26 earnings on January 16, 2026.
Global brokerage Goldman Sachs recently raised its 12‑month target on RIL to ₹1,835 per share, implying about 25% upside from current levels. This Buy rating is based on expectations of stronger refining margins and steady telecom growth.
Meanwhile, Nomura expects Reliance’s consolidated EBITDA to rise modestly in the December quarter. It sees Jio’s EBITDA growing as subscriber additions increase and ARPU edges higher.
International broker Morgan Stanley also has a bullish stance. It forecast potential earnings upgrades every quarter in 2026 as the company’s energy, retail, and telecom businesses turn positive on free cash flow.
However, some analysts caution that retail growth may remain muted in the near term. Soft consumer demand can pressure discretionary sales, and investors may yet be pricing in slower momentum. This mix of optimistic long‑term views and short‑term caution explains why opinions differ going into the Q3 results.
Reliance Earnings Expectations: What Matters Most?
With earnings set for January 16, 2026, key drivers across Reliance’s divisions will shape investor sentiment.
Refining and Energy Business
The oil‑to‑chemicals (O2C) segment is expected to rebound. Higher refining margins could sharply improve profitability if global conditions remain supportive. Analysts see this as a major offset to weaker retail numbers.
Telecom (Jio) Business
Jio remains one of the company’s most stable businesses. Nomura forecasts higher EBITDA for Jio in Q3, driven by continued subscriber growth.
Retail Business
Retail is likely the weak link this quarter. Slower consumer demand across India has reduced foot traffic and discretionary spending. This could drag on the retail segment’s contribution to overall earnings.
Upstream and FX Business
Nomura projects a slight decline in upstream energy performance, partly offset by favorable foreign exchange movements. The mixed outlook across these key areas means Q3 results may show pockets of strength but also visible challenges.
Is It a Good Time to Buy Reliance Shares?
The recent price correction has made investors ask a clear question: Is this a buying opportunity or a risk trap?
Bullish points center on valuation and long‑term fundamentals. Current prices are lower than many analysts predicted at the start of 2026. With global brokerages maintaining Buy or higher weight ratings and higher price targets, there is room for upside if earnings beat expectations.
Particularly positive are forecasts that the energy and telecom businesses will support earnings going forward, even if retail lags.
Risks remain real. A slow retail quarter could disappoint, keeping sentiment weak. Geopolitical concerns and technical factors might keep selling pressure alive if traders lose confidence.
Near‑term traders often avoid buying large positions right before earnings because of volatility risk. Long‑term investors might view dips as opportunities if they believe in Reliance’s overall strategy.
Final Words
Reliance Industries’ share price slide reflects a mix of market fear and macro uncertainty. The sell‑off was triggered by retail weakness, geopolitical headlines, and technical trading dynamics. Analyst price targets and bullish forecasts show confidence in the company’s medium‑term growth prospects.
However, near‑term risks tied to consumption trends and external pressures still exist. With Q3 results due on January 16, 2026, the next few sessions will be critical in showing if the stock can stabilise or if fears will deepen before earnings headlines hit.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Reliance shares fell 8% in early January 2026. Investors were worried about slow retail sales, global oil issues, and market rumors. The fall reflects short-term fear, not long-term performance.
Reliance Industries will announce its Q3 FY26 results on Friday, January 16, 2026. Investors are waiting to see earnings from telecom, retail, and energy businesses for guidance.
Buying Reliance now depends on risk. Some see value after the recent drop, while others prefer to wait for Q3 results on January 16, 2026, before deciding.
Disclaimer
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
