GEO Stock Today: January 12 ICE Protests Put Contracts in Focus
GEO stock is back in focus after ICE protests in Minnesota put immigration detention contracts under scrutiny. We track GEO for Canadian investors because U.S. policy shifts can move revenue, pricing, and renewals fast. The latest available quote shows US$16.59 with modest intraday pressure and a deep year-to-date drawdown. With reports of a 2,000‑agent federal surge, facility utilization could rise, while community pushback may cap per‑diem growth. We outline the contract risks, price levels, and key dates to watch.
Contracts and policy risk after ICE protests
Protests in Rochester following ICE activity have raised local opposition to immigration detention, a visible headline risk for providers. Early coverage shows community mobilization and political attention in Minnesota Protesters hit the Med City following ICE activity and a downtown demonstration in Rochester Rochester demonstration protests presence of ICE in the community. For GEO stock, stronger community sentiment can complicate contract renewals, pricing talks, and facility expansions.
Reports of a 2,000‑agent federal surge suggest higher enforcement throughput that can lift occupancy and utilization. Yet public scrutiny often tightens oversight and limits per‑diem increases or contract tenors. For GEO stock, that mix implies steadier volumes but potentially flatter pricing, more compliance costs, and a greater mix of alternatives like electronic monitoring that may earn lower margins versus secure facilities.
What today’s price and trend say
The latest provided quote shows US$16.59, down by 0.155 on the day, with a -0.9256% change. Intraday range: US$15.87 to US$16.83; 52‑week range: US$14.27 to US$36.46. The year‑to‑date change sits at -47.04843% and the 3‑month change at -26.02469%. Volume was 1,447,600 versus a 1,910,029 average. We treat these as reference levels for GEO stock given the timestamped data.
RSI is 48.32, near neutral. ADX at 12.26 shows no strong trend. MACD is slightly negative (-0.04) with a flat signal. Price sits near the middle Bollinger band (Upper 17.08, Middle 16.45, Lower 15.82) and the Keltner middle at 16.31. For GEO stock, a sustained close above 17.08 would hint at upside; a break below 15.82 would flag renewed pressure.
Fundamentals and balance sheet check
Market cap is US$2,434,559,853 with price-to-sales at 0.9913 and price-to-book at 1.59. TTM P/E is 26.73, while the quote list shows 10.35, reflecting method and period differences. Net profit margin is 3.69%, ROE 6.48%, and ROA 2.38%. For GEO stock, these metrics suggest modest profitability and a valuation near sales parity, leaving execution and policy as main drivers.
Debt-to-equity is 1.07 with net debt to EBITDA at 3.44 and interest coverage of 1.64. Current ratio is 1.62. Operating cash flow per share is 1.7187 and free cash flow per share is 0.9457. No dividend is indicated. GEO stock needs higher occupancy, steadier pricing, and lower interest costs to widen coverage and fund growth without stressing the balance sheet.
Scenarios Canadian investors should model
A federal enforcement surge can raise bed demand, pushing occupancy and revenue higher. Internal forecasts show price paths at US$17.03 monthly and US$32.14 over a year, with 3‑year at US$44.83 if momentum improves. Analyst snapshot shows 2 Buys (consensus 4.00). In this setup, GEO stock could re-rate if contracts extend and margins hold.
Sustained Minnesota pushback can stall renewals or cap per‑diems, while compliance costs rise. Technicals show weak trend strength (ADX 12.26) and negative momentum. One composite rating tags the company C+ with a Sell tilt despite a separate B+ grade suggesting Buy. In a squeeze, GEO stock may lag until pricing clarity and policy direction improve.
Final Thoughts
For Canadian investors, the setup around GEO stock is a tug-of-war between utilization upside and contract pressure. We would track three items closely. First, the next earnings call on 17 February 2026 for occupancy, per‑diem trends, and guidance on renewals. Second, Minnesota policy signals and any spillover to other states, since sentiment can sway pricing and tenors. Third, price levels around US$15.82 and US$17.08 as near‑term risk markers. Position sizing should reflect policy volatility, modest interest coverage, and currency exposure to the U.S. dollar. With no dividend, the case is purely capital gains and cash flow improvement. Have a plan for both scenarios and adjust as new data arrives.
FAQs
Is GEO stock a buy for Canadian investors today?
It is a mixed picture. Technicals are neutral, the price-to-sales ratio is ~0.99, and leverage is moderate with interest coverage at 1.64. Protests raise renewal risk, while enforcement may lift utilization. Consider staggered entries, clear stops near key bands, and review earnings on 17 February 2026.
How do Minnesota ICE protests affect GEO stock?
They increase headline and policy risk. Community pushback can slow renewals or cap per‑diem rates, pressuring margins. At the same time, reported federal enforcement surges may raise occupancy. The net effect depends on pricing power versus volume gains and any additional compliance costs that follow.
What key dates should I watch for GEO?
Watch the earnings announcement on 17 February 2026 for occupancy and pricing updates. Also monitor state and local actions in Minnesota following January 12 protests, as these can influence contract terms. Price reactions around the Bollinger and Keltner midlines can offer timely trading signals.
What risks matter most for private prison stocks now?
Contract renewals, per‑diem pricing, policy shifts, and litigation are primary. Leverage and interest coverage add financial risk. Community sentiment can trigger closures or stricter oversight. For GEO stock, watch ADX for trend strength, occupancy updates, and any guidance on electronic monitoring mix and margins.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
