Q4 $33.05B: TSM Taiwan Semiconductor NYSE 12 Jan 2026 after hours: what’s next
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited reported Q4 revenue of $33.05 billion, and TSM stock jumped in after-hours trade. We see the move in context: the share price closed at $332.40 on the NYSE, up +4.53%, with volume at 10,538,163 shares. This rally follows stronger-than-expected top-line data and renewed analyst interest ahead of the company’s earnings report due 15 Jan 2026 (08:30 ET). We examine fundamentals, technical signals, and our forecast to frame trading and investment decisions for TSM stock.
After-hours price reaction and trading snapshot for TSM stock
Q4 revenue news sent TSM stock higher in after-hours trading with a close at $332.40 and a one-day change of +14.39 or +4.53%. The intraday range ran from $321.06 to $333.52, and the stock is within cents of its year high $333.08. Average daily volume is 12,733,727 versus today’s 10,538,163, so liquidity remains healthy on the NYSE in the United States. Short-term momentum indicators such as RSI 65.18 and MACD histogram 2.49 point to bullish but not overbought conditions, which matters for traders considering earnings exposure.
Earnings drivers and near-term catalysts shaping TSM stock
AI demand and advanced-node capacity are the main bullish drivers cited by market commentary and analysts, supporting TSM’s pricing power and utilization. Recent coverage highlights record-quarter expectations and stronger demand for advanced packaging and 2-nanometer ramps source. The company’s earnings release on 15 Jan 2026 (08:30 ET) will be the proximate catalyst for guidance. We expect investors to focus on wafer shipments, advanced-node mix, and capital expenditure cadence for 2026.
Fundamentals and valuation snapshot for TSM stock
The fundamentals remain strong but valuation is rich versus history. Key figures: market cap $1,678,047,697,363.00, EPS 9.64, and PE 33.56. Price averages are 50-day $295.42 and 200-day $241.87, showing the recent uptrend. Balance-sheet metrics show a current ratio 2.69 and net debt to EBITDA negative, reflecting significant cash buffers (cash per share $540.79). Price-to-sales 14.60 and price-to-book 10.61 show investor willingness to pay a premium for tech leadership in semiconductors.
Technicals, trading levels, and short-term targets for TSM stock
Technicals favor continuation while above key moving averages. Important levels: support near the 50-day $295.42 and immediate resistance at $333.52 intraday high. Momentum indicators show MACD positive and ADX 20.82, indicating a possible developing trend. For traders, we flag an initial short-term target of $360.00 on a sustained breakout, and a conservative stop beneath $295.00 to control downside into earnings.
Meyka AI grade and model forecasts for TSM stock
Meyka AI rates TSM with a score out of 100: 81.51 (Grade A) — Suggestion: BUY. This grade factors in S&P 500 and sector comparisons, financial growth, key metrics, analyst consensus, and forecasts. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a monthly price of $304.93 and a five-year target of $340.88. Versus the current price $332.40, that implies a near-term model downside of -8.27% to the monthly forecast and a five-year upside of +2.55%. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Risks, scenario planning, and what investors should watch for TSM stock
Key risks include geopolitical export controls, memory pricing volatility that can affect fab utilization, and any negative guidance on capex or node ramp timing. Legal and supply-chain headlines can move sentiment quickly; recent coverage and analyst notes have already affected positioning source. For investors, watch the Q1 guidance, gross-margin mix, and foundry capacity disclosures. Position sizing and diversification remain crucial given valuation and event risk.
Final Thoughts
TSM stock closed the regular session at $332.40 on the NYSE and rallied after Q4 revenue of $33.05 billion. The near-term picture is event-driven: earnings on 15 Jan 2026 (08:30 ET) will determine whether the advance holds. Fundamentals support a premium valuation: EPS 9.64, PE 33.56, cash per share $540.79, and a strong free-cash-flow profile. Our technical view points to upside if TSM clears $333.52 with follow-through; we note a tactical target near $360.00 and a protective stop near $295.00 for active traders. Meyka AI’s model gives a short-term monthly projection of $304.93 (implying -8.27%) and a five-year projection of $340.88 (implying +2.55%). These model outputs highlight short-term volatility versus longer-term upside potential. We view TSM as a buy for investors seeking AI and advanced-node exposure, but recommend size discipline and watching guidance and node mix at the upcoming report. Meyka AI, our AI-powered market analysis platform, will update forecasts and grade after the earnings release.
FAQs
When does Taiwan Semiconductor report earnings and how may it affect TSM stock?
TSM reports earnings on 15 Jan 2026 (08:30 ET). The report will influence wafer shipment guidance, advanced-node mix, and capex outlook. These items can move TSM stock sharply in either direction depending on guidance and margin detail.
What valuation metrics matter most for TSM stock now?
Important metrics include EPS 9.64, PE 33.56, price-to-sales 14.60, and cash per share $540.79. Watch gross margins and free-cash-flow yield as they drive long-term valuation for TSM stock.
What is Meyka AI’s view and forecast for TSM stock?
Meyka AI rates TSM 81.51/100 (Grade A, BUY). The model projects $304.93 monthly and $340.88 in five years. These are model projections and not guarantees; they imply short-term downside and modest long-term upside versus $332.40.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
