ARU.AX Arafura Rare Earths (ASX) up 8.47% on 13 Jan 2026: volume surge may signal re-rate
ARU.AX stock jumped 8.47% to A$0.32 on 13 Jan 2026 as trading volume hit 86,541,113 shares, making it one of the ASX most active names at market close. The move pushed the intraday range to A$0.29–A$0.33 and lifted the 50-day average to A$0.26. Investors cited renewed interest in Nolans project funding and sector flows into rare earth names. We track how the jump connects to fundamentals, technicals and near-term catalysts for Arafura Rare Earths Limited (ARU.AX) on the ASX in Australia.
ARU.AX stock snapshot and trading detail
Arafura Rare Earths Limited (ARU.AX) closed at A$0.32 on the ASX on 13 Jan 2026. Volume was 86,541,113 shares, well above the average volume of 49,052,360, giving a relative volume of 1.76 and signalling heavy retail or program activity.
Key price points: day low A$0.29, day high A$0.33, 52-week high A$0.62, 52-week low A$0.12, market cap A$790,641,222, and shares outstanding 2,470,753,818.
Recent news and catalysts driving ARU.AX stock
Market attention followed reports of major funding interest for the Nolans project. Investing coverage noted a potential cornerstone funding package of about US$1.05 billion, which traders view as progress toward project financing and construction.source
Catalysts to watch: the company’s next earnings/announcement on 25 Feb 2026, progress on offtake and funding, and global rare earth price moves. For comparative activity and peer flows, see recent competitor screens that include ARU alongside other rare-earth miners.source
Financials and valuation metrics for ARU.AX stock
Arafura shows development-stage financials. EPS is -0.01, trailing P/E is -32.00 and price-to-book is 4.65. Cash per share is A$0.01 and book value per share is A$0.07.
The company has low net debt to market cap and a strong current ratio of 8.37, reflecting cash and short-term assets versus liabilities. These metrics fit a development miner profile with negative earnings and heavy capital needs ahead of production.
Technicals, momentum and most-active trading signals
Technically ARU.AX shows short-term strength. RSI is 61.48, CCI is 123.96 and Stochastic %K/%D are 91.54/91.76, indicating momentum and near-term overbought conditions.
Bollinger Bands sit at 0.21–0.29, ATR is 0.02, and the 50-day average is A$0.26. High volume and a 1.76 relative volume point to real buying interest rather than thin-volume spikes.
Meyka AI grade, analyst context and price targets
Meyka AI rates ARU.AX with a score out of 100: 61.20 (B) — HOLD. This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus.
Independent coverage shows a company rating of C+ dated 12 Jan 2026 with a sell recommendation on some screens. Given the development profile, we set a short-term base price target at A$0.41 (quarterly forecast), a conservative downside target of A$0.28, and a long-term target of A$0.59 (5-year forecast). These imply a near-term upside of 28.13% to the A$0.41 target and a longer-term upside of 83.15% to A$0.59, versus the current A$0.32. Forecasts are model-based and not guarantees.
Risks, sector context and investor checklist
Principal risks: project financing timing, capex overruns, commodity price swings, and permitting or environmental delays. Arafura is in the Basic Materials sector and has higher volatility than large diversified miners.
Investors should monitor funding milestones, rare earth price trends, and the company’s 25 Feb 2026 update. Use position sizing and consider liquidity: average daily volume is 49,052,360, which supports active trading but can still move quickly on news.
Final Thoughts
Key takeaways on ARU.AX stock: the share price rose 8.47% to A$0.32 on 13 Jan 2026 on heavy volume, making ARU.AX one of the ASX most active names at close. Development-stage metrics show negative EPS (-0.01) and a price-to-book of 4.65, so fundamentals still reflect project risk. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a quarterly target of A$0.41, implying a 28.13% upside from the current price, and a five-year projection of A$0.59, implying 83.15% upside. Meyka AI rates ARU.AX 61.20 (B) — HOLD, reflecting sector opportunity and execution risk. Short-term traders should watch post-announcement flows and technical momentum. Long-term investors must price in funding and construction risk on Nolans before moving to a higher conviction. For more data and live updates see the Meyka stock page for ARU.AX and listed sources above. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
FAQs
What moved the ARU.AX stock on 13 Jan 2026?
ARU.AX stock rose on heavy volume after media reports of strong funding interest for the Nolans project and sector inflows into rare earth miners. Volume reached 86,541,113 shares, far above the 50m average.
What is Meyka AI’s rating for ARU.AX?
Meyka AI rates ARU.AX 61.20 out of 100 (B) with a HOLD suggestion. The grade factors in benchmark comparison, sector, financial growth, key metrics and analyst signals.
What near-term price target exists for ARU.AX stock?
Meyka AI’s short-term forecast gives a base target of A$0.41, implying about 28.13% upside from the current A$0.32. This is model-based and not a guarantee.
When is the next company announcement for Arafura?
The company has an earnings/announcement scheduled for 25 Feb 2026. That update may affect funding clarity and the share price significantly, so monitor it closely.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
