MSFT Stock Today: January 14 OpenAI’s $10B Cerebras Deal Impact
The OpenAI Cerebras deal is front and centre for Canadian investors following MSFT. OpenAI’s planned scale-up with Cerebras could diversify compute for advanced models and influence Azure’s AI infrastructure costs. Today, Microsoft stock trades near US$459.38, down about 2.4%, as markets weigh capex needs against long-term AI growth. We break down what this Cerebras partnership might mean for Microsoft stock, margins, technicals, and what to watch into earnings later this month.
What the Cerebras partnership changes
OpenAI says Cerebras will provide compute to train future models, a sign of broader supply beyond a single GPU vendor. This could reduce bottlenecks and improve time-to-train for frontier systems, supporting Azure AI demand over time. For investors, the OpenAI Cerebras deal signals a push to secure capacity at scale, with details outlined by OpenAI’s announcement source.
If training cycles shorten, we could see faster model upgrades across the OpenAI stack. That can spur more Azure usage, GitHub Copilot seats, and Microsoft 365 AI consumption. The OpenAI Cerebras deal also suggests a deeper specialty-silicon path alongside GPUs. A steadier model cadence would aid revenue visibility across Microsoft’s AI products while spreading dependency across more vendors.
Implications for Microsoft’s economics
Microsoft’s capex-to-revenue sits near 23.5% TTM, reflecting heavy AI infrastructure build. The OpenAI Cerebras deal could temper supply risk, but near-term depreciation and power costs still pressure margins. Over time, higher AI utilization rates are key. If Cerebras partnership capacity improves unit economics, Azure gross margin could benefit, but pricing and workload mix will drive the pace.
Into Jan 28, 2026 earnings, we will watch Azure AI contribution, commercial AI seat growth, and commentary on supply diversification. Management colour on OpenAI consumption, cost per token, and data centre efficiency will matter. The Financial Times reports a US$10 billion scope for the Cerebras partnership, a scale that could influence MSFT’s capex plans source.
Market reaction and technical picture
Microsoft stock is around US$459.38, down 2.40% today, with a day range of US$457.17 to US$468.20. Shares trade below the 50-day average of US$488.30 and well under the 52-week high of US$555.45. Bollinger Bands center near US$481.51, with the lower band at US$471.42. The OpenAI Cerebras deal framed the session, but price remains in a consolidation zone.
RSI at 45 suggests neutral momentum. ADX at 18 shows no strong trend, while MACD histogram near 0.23 indicates a tentative positive inflection. ATR at 7.92 points to moderate volatility. For traders, watch the US$471 to US$482 zone for shifts in momentum. The OpenAI Cerebras deal headlines may keep intraday ranges wide as the market prices supply and cost outcomes.
What Canadian investors should consider
Canadians typically trade MSFT on U.S. exchanges, so returns reflect USD/CAD moves. Consider currency costs and cash FX settings in registered and non-registered accounts. Liquidity and spreads are strong in U.S. trading hours. The OpenAI Cerebras deal may not change access, but it can affect narrative-driven swings, which matter for order timing and position sizing.
MSFT trades near 32.5x TTM earnings with a 0.74% dividend yield. Street sentiment skews positive: 43 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell. Our system grade is A (BUY), while a separate company rating reads B+ with a neutral tilt given valuation. The OpenAI Cerebras deal supports the long-run AI narrative, but execution, margins, and capex discipline remain central to returns.
Final Thoughts
For Canadian investors, the OpenAI Cerebras deal highlights how AI infrastructure choices can shape Microsoft’s growth, costs, and competitive edge. Near term, watch Azure AI commentary, capex guidance, and evidence that diversified compute improves unit economics. Technically, MSFT sits in a neutral zone with mixed momentum, so confirmation around the US$471 to US$482 band could set the next move. Fundamentals remain solid, with strong profitability and positive analyst sentiment. If model cadence accelerates and utilization rises, AI-driven revenue can outpace cost pressures. Manage FX exposure, size positions prudently, and reassess after the Jan 28 earnings update.
FAQs
How could the OpenAI Cerebras deal affect Microsoft stock in the short term?
It can sway sentiment by changing expectations for AI capacity and costs. Investors may weigh higher near-term capex and power needs against faster AI product adoption. Price action could stay choppy around key technical levels until management gives clearer guidance on supply, margins, and Azure AI demand.
Does the Cerebras partnership reduce Microsoft’s dependence on Nvidia?
Indirectly, yes. OpenAI adding Cerebras broadens the supply base for advanced training, which can ease bottlenecks and improve resilience. Microsoft benefits if OpenAI’s model cadence improves and Azure AI workloads grow. Still, GPUs remain core, so this is diversification rather than a full shift away from existing suppliers.
What should we watch in MSFT’s Jan 28 earnings?
Focus on Azure AI growth, AI seat additions in Microsoft 365, and comments on training costs and data centre efficiency. Any details on supply diversification, unit economics, and capex trajectory will shape margin expectations. Guidance on AI monetization and customer adoption is likely to be the biggest stock driver.
How should Canadian investors manage USD/CAD risk with MSFT?
Decide whether to hold cash in USD or convert per trade, and check any currency conversion fees. In registered accounts, review your broker’s FX handling. You can also balance currency exposure across holdings. Keep position sizes aligned with your risk tolerance, since FX can add an extra layer of volatility.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
