BTCUSD Today, January 15: Breaks Cloud; Eyes $100K as SCOTUS Looms
BTCUSD extended its rebound after an Ichimoku cloud break, trading near $96,221 as buyers tested the 100‑day average and targeted the $100,000 mark. On the Bitcoin chart, price sits above the 50‑day average at $89,735 while the 200‑day near $106,120 caps the next resistance zone. With short covering and rising Fed cut hopes, momentum has improved. A possible US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs today could swing the dollar and crypto volatility, a key watch for Japan-based traders.
Technical setup after the cloud break
BTCUSD momentum looks sturdier but not overbought. RSI is 48.9, the MACD histogram has flipped positive at 721.64, and ADX at 25.9 signals a firm trend. ATR near 3,253 points to wide daily ranges, so position sizing matters. Price sits above the upper Bollinger band at 93,209, which often precedes volatility expansion rather than a straight-line move.
Price trades over the 50‑day average at 89,735 and recently tested the 100‑day. The 200‑day near 106,120 is the bigger target if the Ichimoku cloud breakout holds. Intraday, watch 97,015 as the session high and 95,742 as support. Keltner upper at 96,611 marks nearby supply, while the middle Bollinger band at 88,709 is a deeper pullback gauge. Yahoo! Finance Japan.
What could push BTCUSD to $100k
Short covering continues to fuel upside as bears reduce risk. Hopes for earlier Fed cuts keep financial conditions easier, supporting crypto beta. BTC price live trackers show YTD gains near 9.9%, which helps sentiment. For a clean break, we would like to see sustained closes above 97,500 with rising volume and firm breadth across large caps.
For Japan, liquidity peaks into the US morning, so Tokyo afternoons can get fast. USD moves can magnify local BTC pricing. If the dollar softens, BTCUSD can get a tailwind. Domestic traders may prefer laddered orders around round numbers to manage slippage. Check your local exchange spreads and fees during US data and court headlines.
SCOTUS tariff risk and the dollar
A Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs could shift the dollar and risk appetite. A stronger USD can weigh on BTCUSD, while a weaker USD may aid a push toward six figures. This headline risk is front and center in today’s session and is widely monitored in Japan press as well. See context via Forbes JAPAN.
Event risk can widen spreads and trigger whipsaws. Consider pre-defining ranges using ATR near 3,253 and trimming size into the release. If price spikes, fade entries should respect the 95,700 to 97,000 band. If momentum extends, trail stops under higher lows rather than fixed points to keep losses small while letting winners run.
Scenarios beyond $100k
A firm break and hold above $100,000 opens room toward $102,000 to $106,000, where the 200‑day sits near 106,120. MFI at 48 is neutral, leaving space for accumulation if flows improve. Model projections show a quarterly baseline near $135,658, but the path will likely be choppy and headline driven.
Failure near $100,000 could drag price back toward 97,000 and then 95,700. A deeper dip would refocus 93,200 and the 50‑day average at 89,735. The middle Bollinger band at 88,709 is a final tactical support. If these fail on closing bases, the breakout thesis weakens and risk should be reduced.
Final Thoughts
We see BTCUSD in a constructive position after its Ichimoku cloud break, with buyers defending higher lows and eyeing the $100,000 round number. The next technical inflection sits near the 200‑day average around $106,120, while 97,000 and 95,700 frame important intraday supports. For Japan-based investors, USD moves can swing local pricing, so be mindful of currency effects and liquidity around the US session. Into the potential Supreme Court tariff decision, plan for wider ranges and predefine risk. Tactically, scale in on pullbacks toward support, trail stops as price advances, and avoid oversized leverage while volatility runs high. Clear invalidation keeps capital intact for the next setup.
FAQs
Is BTCUSD in an uptrend after the Ichimoku cloud breakout?
It is improving. Price sits above the 50‑day average at 89,735 and has cleared the cloud, while ADX at 25.9 shows a firm trend. RSI near 49 is neutral, so there is room to run if momentum builds. A daily close above 97,500 strengthens the case.
What levels matter today for BTCUSD?
On the topside, watch 97,015 and the $100,000 round number, then 102,000 to 106,120 near the 200‑day. Supports sit at 95,742, then 93,200, with the 50‑day at 89,735 as a deeper line. ATR near 3,253 suggests ranges can be wide around headlines.
How could the Supreme Court tariff ruling affect BTCUSD?
A tariff decision can move the US dollar and broader risk appetite. A stronger USD may cap crypto, while a softer USD can support a push higher. Expect faster moves around the headline. Consider smaller size, staggered entries, and tighter risk controls during the release window.
Should Japan-based traders hedge USD risk when trading BTCUSD?
It helps to monitor USD/JPY, since currency swings affect local BTC pricing and P&L. Some traders keep positions smaller when USD is volatile. Others set alerts around US session opens and data times. If your broker offers FX hedging tools, assess costs before using them.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
