9858.HK China Youran Dairy (HKSE) down 8.75% to HKD 4.38: 57.53% forecast upside
The 9858.HK stock closed at HKD 4.38 on 16 Jan 2026, down 8.75% as heavy trading pushed volume to 442206000.00 shares. This drop followed a day range between HKD 4.04 and HKD 4.66, leaving the share price below the 50-day average of HKD 4.30. Traders on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE) made China Youran Dairy Group Limited (9858.HK) one of the market’s most active names today. We assess why volume spiked, how fundamentals and technicals stack up, and what Meyka AI’s models now project.
Price action and volume for 9858.HK stock
China Youran Dairy (9858.HK) finished the session at HKD 4.38, a -8.75% move from the prior close, with an intraday low of HKD 4.04. Trading volume hit 442206000.00 shares, roughly 3.48 times the average, making it one of Hong Kong’s most active equity trades today. Heavy volume suggests institutional participation or block trades rather than retail-only flows.
Fundamentals and recent performance of China Youran Dairy (9858.HK)
On reported metrics the company shows a mixed picture: EPS -0.19, PE -22.63, PB 1.29, and debt-to-equity 2.43, reflecting significant leverage. Revenue per share is 5.48 while book value per share is 3.22, and the company recorded year-over-year revenue growth of 7.50% for the fiscal year to 2024. These numbers underline operational growth but also margin pressure and heavy balance-sheet leverage for an upstream dairy operator in China.
Technicals, trend indicators and Meyka AI grade for 9858.HK stock
Technical indicators show a strong short-term trend: RSI 66.96, ADX 54.49, and MACD slightly positive, supporting momentum despite today’s drop. Bollinger middle band HKD 4.65 and ATR 0.28 point to elevated volatility. Meyka AI rates 9858.HK with a score of 65.51 out of 100 — Grade: B — Suggestion: HOLD; this grade factors S&P 500 and sector comparisons, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus.
Valuation, forecasts and price targets for 9858.HK stock
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly target of HKD 6.90, a quarterly target of HKD 5.10, and a monthly target of HKD 5.39. Compared with the current price HKD 4.38, the yearly target implies an upside of 57.53% while the quarterly target implies 16.44% upside. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees, and they assume continued demand for raw milk and improvements in free cash flow.
Risks, catalysts and sector context for 9858.HK stock
Key downside risks include high leverage (current ratio 0.39) and exposure to commodity feed costs that can squeeze margins for upstream dairy providers in China. Catalysts include stronger herd productivity, higher raw-milk prices, and better free-cash-flow conversion; the Consumer Defensive sector average PE is 16.08, giving context to Youran’s current valuation. Monitor earnings due 2026-04-01, regulatory updates in China, and sector flows that could shift sentiment quickly.
Trading signals and what most-active volume reveals about 9858.HK stock
Today’s oversized volume relative to the 50-day average suggests liquidity is available but volatility will remain elevated; on-balance volume (OBV) sits at 337039934.00, supporting that buying and selling pressure has been significant. Short-term traders should watch the HKD 4.04 intraday low and the HKD 4.65 mid-Bollinger level for support and resistance. For longer-term investors, progress on debt reduction and margin stabilization should be the primary monitoring metrics.
Final Thoughts
9858.HK stock moved sharply lower on 16 Jan 2026, closing at HKD 4.38 on unusually high volume of 442206000.00 shares, flagging it as one of Hong Kong’s most active names today. Fundamentals show solid revenue per share of 5.48 but negative EPS (-0.19) and significant leverage (debt-to-equity 2.43), which raises company-specific risk even as operating margins expand. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly price of HKD 6.90, implying 57.53% upside from the close, while nearer-term targets sit at HKD 5.10 and HKD 5.39. These forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees. In short, traders will find liquidity and volatility in 9858.HK, while longer-term investors should weigh leverage reduction and cash-flow improvement before sizing positions. For live filings and company disclosures visit the Youran Dairy site and check HKEX listings on HKEX. For a quick quote and data dashboard see our Meyka stock page.
FAQs
What drove today’s move in the 9858.HK stock?
The drop was driven by heavy trading volume of 442206000.00 shares and profit-taking after recent gains. Larger-than-average block trades likely amplified volatility. Check company filings and HKEX announcements for details.
What are the key valuation metrics to watch for 9858.HK stock?
Watch PE -22.63, PB 1.29, EPS -0.19, and debt-to-equity 2.43. These show negative earnings, modest book backing, and high leverage—critical for assessing risk and recovery potential.
What price targets and upside does Meyka AI show for 9858.HK stock?
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects HKD 6.90 for one year (implied 57.53% upside) and nearer targets HKD 5.10 (quarter) and HKD 5.39 (month). Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Should traders use today’s volume spike to trade 9858.HK stock?
High volume creates both liquidity and risk. Short-term traders can use intraday support at HKD 4.04 and resistance near HKD 4.65, but manage position size given elevated volatility and leverage.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
