CWP.AX Stock Today: January 19 Bell Potter sees housing tailwind
Cedar Woods dividend prospects are back in the spotlight after Bell Potter reiterated a Buy with a A$10.00 target, citing Australia’s housing shortage and stable demand. Cedar Woods (CWP.AX) last traded near A$8.29, with FY26–FY27 fully franked DPS forecasts of 35c and 39c, implying 4.2%–4.7% yields at A$8.27. We break down valuation, payout sustainability, technicals, and what to watch into the 24 February 2026 results. For income seekers, the setup around the Cedar Woods dividend looks increasingly interesting on the ASX.
Broker call: housing tailwind and dividend upside
Bell Potter’s Buy and A$10.00 Bell Potter target reflect a tight national housing market, ongoing lot settlements, and a well-spread project pipeline across WA, SA, VIC, and QLD. Forecast fully franked DPS of 35c in FY26 and 39c in FY27 translate to 4.2%–4.7% at A$8.27, a compelling marker among ASX dividend stocks. See the broker round-up here: source.
The Cedar Woods dividend case leans on consistent profitability and franking credits, attractive for Australian taxpayers. TTM DPS sits at 29c (circa 3.5% yield at A$8.29) with a payout ratio near 46%, leaving room for reinvestment. For income frameworks and risks to avoid, this guide is useful: source. We think consistency and cash conversion are the key tests over the next two years.
Price, valuation and fundamentals today
CWP.AX stock trades around A$8.29, within a 12‑month range of A$4.85 to A$9.17. The shares are up about 55.7% over one year, with the 50‑day average near A$8.52 and the 200‑day near A$7.43. On trailing numbers, the P/E is roughly 14.2x with EPS of A$0.57. Market cap is about A$704 million on 85.1 million shares on issue.
Debt to equity is about 0.28 with interest cover near 13.4x, indicating manageable leverage for a developer. Operating cash flow and free cash flow per share are both positive on a trailing basis. The Cedar Woods dividend outlook benefits from this balance, though project timing can still swing cash in any half. We watch pre-sales and settlement schedules closely.
Net margin sits near 10.3% with an ROE around 10.1%. Book value per share is about A$5.93, implying a P/B near 1.39x. That leaves modest headroom if margins improve into FY26–FY27. Management’s discipline on land acquisition and staged releases will matter for sustaining the Cedar Woods dividend and keeping return metrics trending in the right direction.
Technical picture and levels to watch
RSI is 45.9, close to neutral, while ADX at 15.7 signals no strong trend. Short-term momentum has cooled, with the MACD histogram slightly negative and Williams %R near -86 suggesting near-term oversold conditions. For traders, that sets a watch for stabilisation before any move back toward recent highs.
ATR near 0.21 points to contained daily swings. Bollinger bands centre around A$8.50, with price hovering below the middle band. The Keltner channel midline also sits near A$8.50. A decisive push above A$8.50 could open room toward A$8.90–A$9.00, while the A$8.10–A$8.20 area needs to hold to keep the structure intact.
Improving sales releases, higher pre-sales, or stronger margin commentary can re-energise the trend. Any miss on settlements or cost pressure could weigh on the Cedar Woods dividend narrative. We think confirmation of FY26 guidance and visibility on FY27 projects are the swing factors that determine whether CWP.AX stock retests A$9.00 or consolidates lower.
Key dates and what we’re watching next
Cedar Woods reports on 24 February 2026. We will focus on cash collections, settlement volumes, and any update on dividend timing. The Meyka system currently grades the stock B (Hold), which sits under Bell Potter’s Buy stance. Reconciling those views will depend on data the company delivers on the day.
We want clarity on pre-sales, margins by project, land bank turnover, and gearing. Evidence of sticky demand despite higher rates would be supportive for the Cedar Woods dividend path. Any lift in FY26–FY27 DPS confidence, against stable leverage and cash conversion, would likely validate the broker case and keep income-focused buyers engaged.
Final Thoughts
Our take: the Cedar Woods dividend story is gaining support from a tight Australian housing market, solid profitability, and a manageable balance sheet. Bell Potter’s A$10.00 target anchors upside if FY26–FY27 delivery stays on track, with forecast fully franked DPS of 35c and 39c pointing to mid‑single‑digit yields near current prices. For now, we weigh the Meyka B Hold grade against the broker Buy and look to 24 February for proof points. Actionable next steps: review your income needs, set alerts around A$8.20 support and A$8.90 resistance, and reassess after results and guidance.
FAQs
What is the latest view on Cedar Woods from brokers?
Bell Potter has a Buy on Cedar Woods with a A$10.00 target, citing Australia’s housing shortage and stable project execution. That view aligns with a growing income case as dividend forecasts lift into FY26–FY27. We will test that thesis against February results and commentary on margins and settlements.
What yield could Cedar Woods dividend offer?
On Bell Potter’s forecasts, fully franked DPS of 35c in FY26 and 39c in FY27 imply yields of roughly 4.2% to 4.7% at A$8.27. On trailing numbers, DPS is 29c for a yield near 3.5% at A$8.29. Actual yields will vary with the share price and future declarations.
Is CWP.AX stock expensive on valuation?
On trailing figures, Cedar Woods trades around 14x earnings and about 1.39x book value. With ROE near 10% and manageable gearing, that looks reasonable for a developer if margins hold. Upside depends on execution, sales momentum, and any upgrade to dividend or earnings guidance.
What risks could affect the Cedar Woods dividend?
Key risks include settlement delays, construction costs, planning approvals, and a softer housing market. Higher rates can also affect affordability. Any of these may impact cash flow timing and payout capacity. We look for strong pre-sales, cost control, and stable leverage to support ongoing franked dividends.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
