AAI.AX Alcoa (ASX) down 6.90% intraday 20 Jan 2026: earnings 22 Jan set the test
Today intraday, AAI.AX stock dropped 6.90% to A$88.71 on 20 Jan 2026 as traders priced in next-week earnings. Volume is 45,842 shares versus a 50-day average of 315,446, so liquidity is present but below normal. We focus on the upcoming earnings announcement on 22 Jan 2026, how results could move the ASX-listed Alcoa Corporation stock, and what investors should watch for in guidance and margins.
AAI.AX stock: earnings preview and key dates
Alcoa Corporation (AAI.AX) reports results on 22 Jan 2026. The company last reported EPS A$6.81 and trades at PE 13.26. Analysts will track aluminium prices, alumina shipments, and energy costs. We expect commentary on production, contracts, and any capacity actions. One clear catalyst is management guidance that could adjust 2026 margin expectations.
Price action today and what moved the share price
The intraday fall to A$88.71 followed a gap down from a previous close of A$95.28. The stock opened at A$89.39 and traded between A$88.59 and A$89.88 today. Traders cited positioning ahead of earnings and profit-taking after a six-month gain of 97.03%. Lower short-term liquidity and a high RSI support the view that some selling was technical.
Fundamentals and valuation: AAI.AX analysis
Alcoa shows solid profitability with net income per share A$4.43 and return on equity 19.55%. Key ratios: PE 13.26, PB 2.47, and free cash flow per share A$2.51. Debt metrics show debt to equity 0.81 and interest coverage 7.15. These figures support a value case, but capital intensity and commodity cyclicality remain important.
Meyka AI rates AAI.AX with a score out of 100 and technical view
Meyka AI rates AAI.AX with a score out of 100: Score 71.93 | Grade B+ | Suggestion: BUY. This grade factors S&P 500 comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. On technicals the stock shows overbought momentum: RSI 87.08, ADX 47.77, and MACD histogram positive. Short-term indicators point to volatility ahead of earnings.
AAI.AX stock forecast and price targets
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly price A$75.03 and a monthly target A$91.48. Against the current A$88.71, the yearly projection implies -15.44% downside, while the monthly figure implies +3.14% upside. Reasonable analyst-style targets: conservative A$75.00, base A$85.00, bull A$98.32 (year high). Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Risks, catalysts and sector context for investors
Primary catalysts are the 22 Jan earnings, aluminium price moves, and energy cost trends. Downside risks include weaker alumina margins, higher power costs, and global demand softness. The Basic Materials sector is up 11.23% YTD, supporting cyclicals, but commodity volatility can reverse gains quickly. Watch management guidance and spot metal spreads.
Final Thoughts
Key takeaways: intraday weakness in AAI.AX stock to A$88.71 reflects positioning ahead of the 22 Jan 2026 earnings report. Fundamentals remain solid with EPS A$6.81, PE 13.26, and positive free cash flow per share A$2.51. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly A$75.03 and a monthly A$91.48, implying a -15.44% downside to the yearly projection and +3.14% to the monthly. Our technical read shows overbought momentum and higher short-term volatility. For active traders, earnings provide a clear catalyst. For longer term investors, consider valuation, energy exposure, and a conservative A$75.00 price target in portfolio scenarios. Meyka AI provides this as an AI-powered market analysis platform; forecasts are model-based and not guarantees.
FAQs
When does Alcoa (AAI.AX) report earnings?
Alcoa reports earnings on 22 Jan 2026. The result will likely move AAI.AX stock sharply given current overbought technicals and elevated positioning.
What is Meyka AI’s forecast for AAI.AX stock?
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly A$75.03 and monthly A$91.48 for AAI.AX stock. These are model projections and not guarantees of future price.
What are the main risks for AAI.AX stock ahead of earnings?
Key risks include weaker alumina margins, higher energy costs, and a sudden drop in aluminium prices. Operational disruptions or conservative guidance could push AAI.AX stock lower.
How is Alcoa valued now on basic metrics?
Alcoa trades at PE 13.26 with EPS A$6.81, PB 2.47, and free cash flow per share A$2.51. These metrics support a mixed value-growth case for AAI.AX stock.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
