KEY KeyCorp (NYSE) Q4 beat after-hours Jan 20 2026: guidance limits upside
KEY stock jumped after KeyCorp reported Q4 2025 earnings that beat consensus, but the company’s 2026 guidance tempered investor reaction. The shares trade on the NYSE in USD, and the stock moved in after-hours trade on 20 Jan 2026 after the print. Key metrics show price $21.01, EPS $0.81, and PE 26.14, while volume ran at 17,264,789 shares. As an AI-powered market analysis platform, Meyka AI tracks the gap between the headline beat and guidance details that drove the after-hours move.
KEY stock: Q4 earnings snapshot
KeyCorp posted a Q4 beat that surprised models and analysts, driving after-hours activity on 20 Jan 2026. The company reported EPS $0.81 and revenue performance above consensus, yet management included items that worried traders and limited the intraday rally. Market response showed a modest after-hours dip from the regular close of $21.23 to $21.01, linking the beat to cautious sentiment rather than outright optimism. For context see coverage of the report and market reaction source.
KEY stock: Guidance and analyst reaction
Management issued 2026 guidance that matched consensus broadly but lacked upside catalysts, prompting several analysts to flag potential downside to near-term momentum. The upgrade/downgrade mix sits at 10 buys, 3 holds, 2 sells, reflecting mixed sentiment. Seeking Alpha noted the guidance as an earnings beat with caveats, which helps explain the after-hours pullback source.
KEY stock: Valuation and key metrics
Valuation is plain but not stretched: PE 26.14, PB 1.16, and book value per share $18.26. Dividend yield stands at 3.87% with a payout ratio near 95.81%, highlighting limited room for dividend growth. Capital ratios show debt to equity 0.61 and interest coverage weak at 0.31, which raises sensitivity to credit cycles. These figures connect directly to the guidance caveats and investor caution.
KEY stock: Technicals and after-hours trading
Technicals were bullish into the print but showed overbought signals: RSI 73.40 and CCI 146.30. The intraday range hit $20.17–$21.56, with the year range at $12.73–$21.75. Average volume is 16,270,582 shares compared with today’s 17,264,789, so liquidity remained solid in after-hours. Traders should note short-term momentum and volatility when sizing positions.
KEY stock: Meyka AI grade and model forecast
Meyka AI rates KEY with a score out of 100: Score 72.87 | Grade B+ | Suggestion: BUY. This grade factors S&P 500 and sector comparisons, financial growth, key metrics, analyst consensus, and forecasts. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly target $24.10, a monthly $21.97, and a three-year view of $30.38. Compared with current price $21.01, the one-year implied upside is 14.75% and the one-month implied upside is 4.60%. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees. For a detailed stock page see Meyka’s KEY coverage at https://meyka.ai/stocks/KEY.
Final Thoughts
Key takeaways on KEY stock from the Q4 report and after-hours session are clear. The company beat Q4 expectations numerically, but management guidance removed momentum and produced a cautious market reaction on 20 Jan 2026. Valuation metrics — PE 26.14 and PB 1.16 — look reasonable for a regional bank trading on the NYSE in the United States. Risks include a high payout ratio near 95.81%, weak interest coverage 0.31, and sensitivity to credit conditions. Technicals show short-term overbought signals, which heightens risk for traders buying the beat. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a one-year target of $24.10, implying 14.75% upside from $21.01, but investors should weigh that against guidance and sector trends. Use position sizing and diversification when considering KEY stock in portfolios; these forecasts are model outputs and not guarantees.
FAQs
Did KEY stock beat or miss in Q4 2025?
KEY stock beat Q4 2025 consensus on reported EPS $0.81, but management guidance tempered the market response, producing modest after-hours weakness on Jan 20, 2026.
What is Meyka AI’s outlook for KEY stock?
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a one-year target $24.10, implying 14.75% upside from current $21.01; forecasts are model-based and not guaranteed.
What valuation metrics matter for KEY stock now?
Key metrics for KEY stock include PE 26.14, PB 1.16, book value $18.26, dividend yield 3.87%, and payout ratio 95.81%, which affect income and growth expectations.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
