BKW.SW Stock Today: January 21 CHF110m Write-Down Cuts 2025 Outlook
BKW stock is in focus as the Swiss utility confirms a CHF110 million impairment tied to its Wilhelmshaven coal plant and trims 2025 EBIT guidance to CHF540 to 560 million from CHF650 to 750 million. The company keeps 2026 EBIT guidance at CHF650 to 750 million, which we see as the key near term valuation anchor. For Swiss investors, the mix shift toward flexible capacity, including a planned 40% stake in Hamm, matters for earnings quality and cash flow. We track BKW.SW for updates into March.
What the CHF110m Wilhelmshaven write-down means
BKW confirmed a CHF110 million impairment related to its Wilhelmshaven coal plant in Germany. Management cites flatter forward power prices and a tighter regulatory backdrop, which reduce expected asset cash flows. The write-down is non cash but signals lower medium term returns from legacy thermal assets. Swiss holders should note this aligns book value with market reality, reducing future depreciation drag. Blick report.
While the Wilhelmshaven write-down is sizable, leverage remains moderate. Reported debt to equity is 0.365, net debt to EBITDA is 1.34, and interest coverage is 18.9 times, which supports ongoing investment capacity. The asset mix still leans on hydro, grid, and services, limiting concentration risk. We view capital allocation discipline as central to protecting the dividend and sustaining investment grade metrics.
Updated 2025 outlook and why 2026 matters
BKW earnings guidance for 2025 EBIT moves to CHF540 to 560 million from CHF650 to 750 million, reflecting weaker spark spreads and regulation. Crucially, 2026 EBIT guidance is unchanged at CHF650 to 750 million. We expect investors to value BKW stock on 2026 earnings power and the visible pipeline, with discount rates sensitive to power curves and policy clarity.
We see three catalysts: confirmation of 2026 guidance in March, clarity on German asset economics, and progress on flexible capacity plans. The next earnings update is scheduled for 11 March 2026. For BKW stock, holding the 2026 EBIT range should stabilize sentiment, while any improvement in forward prices could lift multiples from current utility sector levels.
Strategy shift: Hamm gas project and flexible capacity
Management plans a 40% stake in a hydrogen ready gas plant in Hamm, Germany, aiming to add dispatchable capacity that can support renewables. The plant is designed for future hydrogen blending, improving long run alignment with decarbonization policy. This strategy targets earnings resilience during low wind or hydro periods. Coverage from NZZ details the plan and policy context. NZZ report
BKW’s capex intensity remains meaningful, with capex to revenue at 9.74% and capex to operating cash flow at 0.62. We expect staged spending tied to permits and contracts. Return hurdles must reflect carbon pricing and capacity market design. If executed on time, Hamm could support 2026 EBIT, smoothing volatility from merchant power and strengthening the quality of earnings.
Valuation, dividend, and risks to monitor
On current metrics, BKW stock trades at 18.05 times TTM earnings and 1.57 times book value, with a 2.41% dividend yield and a 3.34% free cash flow yield. Our system grade is B+, with a Neutral stance on 21 January 2026 given near term earnings risk and project execution needs. Balance sheet strength supports continued investment and a covered dividend.
Main risks include German regulatory changes, volatile gas and power prices, and execution on the Hamm project. We also watch Swiss grid regulation and water availability for hydro output. Holders should track forward power curves, project milestones, and any update to 2026 EBIT guidance, which currently remains CHF650 to 750 million and is central to valuation.
Final Thoughts
BKW stock faces a near term earnings reset after a CHF110 million Wilhelmshaven write-down and a lower 2025 EBIT range of CHF540 to 560 million. We think the unchanged 2026 EBIT target of CHF650 to 750 million is the key support for valuation. The strategic shift toward flexible capacity via the Hamm gas project can reduce earnings volatility and align with policy. For investors in Switzerland, focus on three items: confirmation of 2026 guidance in March, visibility on Hamm commitments and returns, and power price trends. With a B+ grade and Neutral stance today, we prefer disciplined add points on evidence that 2026 earnings power and cash generation remain intact.
FAQs
What happened to BKW stock today?
BKW stock is reacting to a CHF110 million impairment on the Wilhelmshaven coal plant and a cut to 2025 EBIT guidance to CHF540 to 560 million. The company kept 2026 EBIT guidance at CHF650 to 750 million. We see 2026 as the main valuation anchor for investors.
How does the Wilhelmshaven write-down affect results?
The CHF110 million write-down is non cash and reduces the carrying value of the coal asset. It reflects lower expected cash flows from flatter power prices and regulation. More importantly, management reset 2025 EBIT to CHF540 to 560 million, while keeping 2026 guidance unchanged, which steadies medium term expectations.
What is the Hamm gas project and why does it matter?
BKW plans a 40% stake in a hydrogen ready gas plant in Hamm, Germany. The project adds flexible capacity to back up renewables and could support earnings from 2026 onward. Success depends on approvals, contracting, and power market design that supports capacity payments and reliable returns.
Is BKW stock attractive after the guidance cut?
On 18.05 times TTM earnings with a 2.41% dividend yield, BKW stock looks fairly priced given near term uncertainty. Our system grade is B+, with a Neutral stance today. We would watch March guidance, power price trends, and progress on Hamm before taking a more decisive view.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
