106,785,449 shares NCM.AX Newcrest ASX intraday 20 Jan 2026: volume may drive upside
High intraday activity is driving attention to NCM.AX stock after 106,785,449 shares traded and a price near A$23.35 on the ASX in Australia. The stock is down A$0.30 (-1.27%) intraday but is trading with 24.52x relative volume versus its average of 4,354,702 shares. This most-active session reflects heavy interest from traders and institutions watching gold sector moves and short-term momentum.
Intraday price action for NCM.AX stock
Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM.AX) is trading at A$23.35, down A$0.30 from the previous close of A$23.65. The session range is A$22.97 to A$23.62, signalling intraday sellers into the high. Volume is 106,785,449 versus an average of 4,354,702, which makes NCM.AX one of the ASX most active names today.
Why NCM.AX stock is among the ASX most active
Relative volume sits at 24.52, meaning trading is roughly 24 times normal levels and the stock is drawing momentum flows. That surge explains why NCM.AX appears on most-active lists on the ASX intraday tape. Traders are reacting to sector momentum in Basic Materials, which has a YTD of 11.23%, and peer moves across gold and copper names source.
Fundamentals and valuation for Newcrest Mining (NCM.AX)
Newcrest shows a market capitalisation of A$20.88 billion with 894,230,976 shares outstanding and EPS of A$1.33, producing a PE near 17.56. Price-to-book is about 1.20 and enterprise value is roughly A$15.48 billion, indicating a mid-cycle valuation relative to peers.
Cash flow metrics are intact: operating cash flow per share is A$1.80 and free cash flow per share is A$0.56. Net debt to EBITDA is 0.70 and interest coverage is 9.15, pointing to manageable leverage but exposure to commodity-price swings.
Meyka AI rates NCM.AX with a score out of 100 and forecast for NCM.AX stock
Meyka AI rates NCM.AX with a score out of 100: Score 64.96 | Grade B | Suggestion: HOLD. This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. The grade is informational and not investment advice.
Meyka AI’s forecast model projects A$38.75 in 1 year, implying +65.98% from the current A$23.35. The model projects A$47.12 in 3 years (+101.82%) and A$54.31 in 5 years (+132.64%). Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees.
Technical signals, moving averages and volume momentum
NCM.AX is trading below its 50-day average of A$25.44 and its 200-day average of A$25.93, which is a short-term technical headwind. The stock’s year high is A$30.28 and year low is A$16.93, so current price sits closer to the mid-point of the 52-week range. High intraday volume with heavy selling into the intraday high suggests momentum traders are active and liquidity is present for larger orders.
Catalysts and risks shaping NCM.AX stock outlook
Key catalysts include gold and copper price moves, production reports from Cadia, Telfer and Havieron, and any resource updates from Papua New Guinea projects. Macro drivers such as a weaker AUD or rising gold can lift margins.
Primary risks are commodity volatility, mine operational setbacks, and geopolitical or permitting issues at overseas assets. Watch sector flows and peer activity—VLC and other holdings lists show funds rotating across miners source.
Final Thoughts
NCM.AX stock is trading as one of the ASX most active names today on a spike to 106,785,449 shares and a price of A$23.35. Fundamentals show a PE of 17.56, EPS A$1.33, and a market cap near A$20.88 billion, supporting a mid-cycle valuation with manageable leverage. Technicals are mixed: the share price sits below both the 50-day (A$25.44) and 200-day (A$25.93) averages, but extraordinary intraday volume creates a tradeable setup for momentum players. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects A$38.75 in 12 months (implied +65.98%), with longer-term targets at A$47.12 (3 years) and A$54.31 (5 years). These model-based projections are not guarantees; investors should weigh commodity risk, potential production surprises and sector rotation. For active traders the intraday volume offers liquidity; for longer-term investors the company’s free cash flow and low net-debt-to-EBITDA support a measured HOLD stance in diversified portfolios. Meyka AI provides this grade and forecast as part of our AI-powered market analysis platform to help frame risk and reward.
FAQs
What is driving the NCM.AX stock volume spike today?
The spike reflects heavy trading interest with 106,785,449 shares changing hands and a relative volume of 24.52x the average. Sector momentum in Basic Materials and short-term momentum flows into gold and copper names are driving activity.
Is NCM.AX stock a buy at A$23.35?
Meyka AI assigns NCM.AX a B (HOLD) grade. The stock has a PE of 17.56 and decent cash flow, but price sits below moving averages. Consider exposure size, commodity risk and time horizon before buying.
What short- and long-term price forecasts exist for NCM.AX stock?
Meyka AI’s model projects A$38.75 in 1 year (+65.98%), A$47.12 in 3 years (+101.82%), and A$54.31 in 5 years (+132.64%). Forecasts are model-driven and not guarantees.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
