9961.HK Stock Today: January 16 SAMR Antitrust Probe Sparks Selloff
Trip.com antitrust probe headlines drove heavy selling in Hong Kong today. 9961.HK fell 19.2% to HK$460.00 after China’s SAMR opened a case into alleged abuse of dominance tied to its pricing tool. The drop widened an ADS discount and pushed the price below key averages. We review what SAMR is examining, how brokers frame the impact, and the Hong Kong read-through. With earnings due on 23 February 2026, positioning around clarity will matter for local investors.
Selloff drivers and price action
The Trip.com antitrust probe sparked a swift risk reset. 9961.HK opened at HK$484.20, hit an intraday low of HK$446.00, and closed near HK$460.00, down HK$109.50 or 19.23%. Volume surged to 34.16 million shares versus a 1.82 million average, signaling forced de-risking. The stock now sits below the 50-day average of HK$561.42 and the 200-day average of HK$521.46, confirming a technical breakdown.
Local reports say SAMR is looking at issues tied to a pricing tool, potential exclusivity, traffic allocation, and commissions. These areas are common focus points in China’s platform oversight and could lead to behavioral remedies. Early articles highlight an ADS gap and concerns over bargaining power with hotels. See coverage for context: source.
Broker views on impact
Broker commentary remains split. According to local briefs, Daiwa stays constructive on the medium-term case despite near-term pressure, citing Trip.com’s scale, product breadth, and post-pandemic travel recovery. The view implies any remedy from the Trip.com antitrust probe may be manageable if limited to transparency, fair display rules, or fee adjustments rather than structural breakups or heavy fines.
Reports flag Lyon’s view that lower online travel agency fees may not meaningfully lift hotel chains’ RevPAR, given reliance on platform traffic and marketing reach. That frames the Trip.com antitrust probe as a redistribution of value, not a clear profit windfall for suppliers. Read the local digest for details: source.
Valuation, ADS gap and technicals
The US ADS reportedly traded about 14% below the Hong Kong line during the turmoil, widening the usual spread. Such an ADS discount can reflect hedging flows, liquidity and FX frictions, and headline risk. Until the Trip.com antitrust probe path is clearer, gaps may persist. Arbitrage typically narrows these dislocations, but timing is uncertain when regulatory catalysts dominate tape action.
Post-selloff, the stock’s PE sits near 15.9 on EPS of HK$28.93, with market cap around HK$300.66 billion. Price is below the 50-day and 200-day averages, cautioning that rallies may face supply. The Trip.com antitrust probe keeps a risk premium in place. A sustained close back above HK$521.46 would improve momentum, while a revisit of HK$402.60 year low cannot be ruled out if headlines worsen.
Watchlist for HK investors
Key watchpoints: formal SAMR communications, any interim guidance on practices, and potential proposals on exclusivity, ranking, or commission models. Management commentary will matter, especially at results on 23 February 2026. We will also track booking trends for Lunar New Year travel. The Trip.com antitrust probe timeline is uncertain, so incremental disclosures could move the share price quickly.
For active HK investors, position sizing and clear stop levels are vital while regulatory risk is live. Consider scenarios where remedies trim take rates or demand changes supplier mix. Monitor the ADS discount and borrow costs if considering pair trades. Until the Trip.com antitrust probe outcome is known, expect headline-driven volatility and wide intraday ranges.
Final Thoughts
The Trip.com antitrust probe is the central driver of today’s slide in Hong Kong, with 9961.HK breaking below key moving averages and the ADS discount widening. SAMR appears focused on how pricing tools, display, and commissions affect market power. Outcomes likely range from disclosure and ranking rules to fee tweaks. Heavy structural remedies seem less common, but cannot be dismissed. For HK investors, we think the path forward is about monitoring official notices, management updates, and early signs of booking elasticity. Short term, risk premia and spreads can stay elevated. Medium term, execution on growth, compliance clarity, and earnings on 23 February 2026 will shape the recovery path.
FAQs
Why did 9961.HK drop so much today?
China’s SAMR opened an antitrust case into Trip.com, focusing on alleged abuse of dominance linked to a pricing tool. The headline shock hit sentiment, driving 9961.HK down 19% to HK$460 on heavy volume. The move pushed the price below key averages and widened the ADS discount, prompting de-risking across local portfolios.
What is SAMR investigating at Trip.com?
Reports indicate SAMR is reviewing platform behavior, including exclusivity, traffic allocation, ranking, and commissions tied to a pricing tool. These areas address whether partners receive fair treatment and whether fees or display rules limit competition. Remedies could include transparency and fair-display commitments, fee adjustments, or other behavioral changes, depending on findings.
Does the ADS discount create an opportunity?
The ADS reportedly traded about 14% below the Hong Kong line. While spreads often narrow over time, regulatory uncertainty can keep discounts wider for longer. Any cross-market trade needs to consider borrow costs, FX, liquidity, and headline risk. Arbitrage is not risk-free, and timing the convergence during a probe is difficult.
What should HK investors watch next?
Watch for official SAMR updates, company statements on compliance changes, and booking trends into Lunar New Year. The 23 February 2026 earnings report is another key date for guidance on take rates and margins. Price action relative to the 200-day average and the ADS discount can also signal whether risk appetite is improving.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
