9992.HK Stock Today, December 24: Deutsche ‘Hold’ as Resale Craters
Pop Mart stock is in focus today after analysts flagged fading Labubu demand and softer resale pricing. Shares of 9992.HK trade near HK$200, roughly 40% below August highs, as investors weigh execution risks into 2026. Deutsche Bank kept a Hold rating with a HK$228 target, putting the spotlight on new IP and partnerships. For Australian investors, Hong Kong liquidity, FX costs, and timing matter. We break down the latest price action, the resale slump, and what could re-rate Pop Mart stock next.
Price action and technical setup
Pop Mart stock last traded at HK$200.2, down 0.1% on the day, within a HK$199.3 to HK$202.8 range. Volume printed 2,829,256 shares versus a 15,281,823 average, showing a quiet tape. The price sits near the Bollinger middle band at HK$203.03. RSI reads 45.88, a neutral zone that often precedes trend confirmation. For Australians, thinner sessions around holidays can widen spreads.
Momentum looks mixed. MACD is -5.69 with a positive histogram of 1.43, hinting at stabilising short-term momentum. ADX at 21.70 suggests a weak trend. Nearby resistance sits around the 50-day average at HK$218.11 and the Bollinger upper band at HK$226.70. Support tracks the lower band near HK$179.35. ATR at 8.57 implies typical daily swings near HK$9, so position sizes should reflect volatility.
At HK$200.2, Pop Mart stock trades at 35.52 times TTM earnings and 10.72 times sales, with a rich 16.97 times book. Profitability is strong, with a 54.52% ROE and a 30.32% net margin. EPS grew about 91% in FY2024, and free cash flow per share is HK$2.12. The dividend yield is roughly 0.44%, modest for income-focused portfolios.
Demand shock and resale fallout
Reports show resale prices for Labubu merchandise collapsing, from roughly 170,000 won to 20,000 won in some cases, signalling a sharp reset in collector enthusiasm. That hurts perceived scarcity and pricing power. This aligns with field checks that queues have shortened and turnover slowed in key channels. See coverage here: “People Lined Up Before Opening”… Resale Price Plummets.
The bloom is off the rose as the brand’s flagship IP cools. Pop Mart stock is about 40% below August peaks, mirroring the fade in secondary-market premiums and anxiety over excess supply. Analysts warn production ramp brings execution risk into 2026 if demand normalises. Background on the slide and wealth impact is detailed by Forbes: Chinese Toymaker Mogul Loses Billions.
Australian collectors helped fuel early hype, but the local resale market is thinner than Greater China. That makes price discovery slow during down cycles. Inventory could linger longer, and discounting may pressure margins. For investors, weak premiums reduce optionality for new drops. We would track Labubu demand, restock cadence, and sell-through in ANZ stores and official online channels.
Deutsche view and re-rating drivers
Deutsche Bank reiterated its Hold rating with a HK$228 price target, about 14% above HK$200.2. That stance implies balanced risk and reward while the business absorbs a demand reset. The call highlights potential for stabilisation, yet also acknowledges unresolved questions on pricing power. For Pop Mart stock, execution and timing of new IP cycles will likely dictate whether shares close that gap.
Fresh IP launches, smart licensing tie-ups, and overseas scale-ups could reignite momentum. Stable gross margins near 70% provide cushion if volumes improve. Marketing that shifts from scarcity to community could help retention. Execution on production schedules through 2026 remains key. If management lands a mainstream collaboration, Pop Mart stock could see a stronger multiple and better sell-through.
Premium erosion is the headline risk. Inventory days sit near 121.93 and the cash conversion cycle is about 50.51 days, both sensitive to slower turns. Rich ratios add downside torque if growth cools. Policy changes in China and cross-border logistics can add friction. Without clear traction on new IP, Pop Mart stock could stay range bound beneath HK$226 to HK$228.
Practical playbook for Australian investors
We would respect volatility. Traders can watch HK$179 to HK$190 as a demand zone and HK$218 to HK$226 as near-term supply. The ATR near HK$8.57 supports wider stops. Scaling entries in thirds reduces timing risk. If momentum turns positive and volume expands, Pop Mart stock may attempt a push toward HK$228.
Aussie investors access Hong Kong on T+2 settlement, with trades executed in HKD. FX spreads and platform fees can lift transaction costs. Hong Kong generally does not impose dividend withholding tax, which helps net yield. Consider setting HKD cash balances during active periods to avoid poor conversion rates when trading Pop Mart stock.
Diversification helps. Pair positions with broader consumer names or keep cash buffers to manage drawdowns. Options liquidity in Hong Kong single names can be limited for some retail platforms, so risk controls matter. If you hold Pop Mart stock, watch catalysts and trade around levels. If you are new, consider a starter allocation and add on confirmation.
Final Thoughts
Pop Mart stock sits at a valuation that assumes renewed growth, yet the Labubu resale slump shows how quickly premiums can fade. Deutsche’s Hold and a HK$228 target suggest moderate upside if execution improves. For Australians, we think discipline around levels, costs, and FX is essential. Track sell-through, new IP traction, and international partnerships. A sustained move above HK$218 to HK$226 with stronger volume would support momentum. Conversely, a break toward HK$179 would argue for patience. This article is informational only. Do your own research and consider professional advice before investing.
FAQs
A Hold with a HK$228 target implies modest upside from HK$200.2, but risk sits in slowing premiums and inventory turns. We would wait for clearer demand signals from new IP or a break above HK$218 to HK$226 on rising volume before sizing up. Start small and add on confirmation.
We are watching HK$179 to HK$190 as a potential demand zone and HK$218 to HK$226 as supply. The Bollinger lower band near HK$179 offers technical support. The 50-day average around HK$218 and HK$226.70 upper band act as resistance. A decisive close above that range could target HK$228.
Falling resale prices weaken scarcity and pricing power, which can slow sell-through and raise markdown risk. That pressure may lengthen inventory days and weigh on margins. The impact depends on how fast new IP resonates and whether marketing shifts rebuild demand. Watch restock pace and overseas performance.
Trades settle in HKD, so FX spreads and fees matter. Liquidity can thin around holidays, widening bid-ask spreads. Hong Kong generally has no dividend withholding tax. Plan entries in stages, use wider stops given ATR near HK$8.57, and monitor catalysts like new IP and partnerships for conviction.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
