ASX 200 Today, January 23: Rebounds as Tariff Fears Ease, RBA Risk Looms
The ASX 200 opened higher as tariff worries cooled and risk appetite improved. A softer tone from the US on trade helped lift cyclicals, even as a hot jobs print keeps a February RBA rate hike in play. Energy and major banks led early gains, with the benchmark ^AXJO tracking firmer. We break down what is driving today’s ASX 200 rebound, how the Trump tariff reversal shifted sentiment, and what the RBA risk means for positioning.
Risk rally returns as tariff fears cool
A sharp change in US trade rhetoric soothed markets, with the ASX 200 firm as investors priced a lower chance of new import levies. Reports that Donald Trump walked back broad tariff threats supported cyclicals and travel stocks. Australia’s export‑linked names also found buyers on improved global growth hopes. This turn in sentiment was a key spark for today’s rebound source.
Despite stronger risk appetite, a tight labour market keeps policy risk front of mind. Traders still see a non‑trivial chance of a February RBA rate hike after a hot employment report. That mix lifted yields and aided banks, while weighing on long‑duration names. Markets are balancing tariff relief with domestic policy uncertainty, leaving the ASX 200 supported but selective source.
Banks and energy lead; Santos pops
Major banks outperformed as steeper rate expectations supported net interest margins and a resilient economy underpinned credit quality. Investors favoured liquid, dividend payers as the ASX 200 advanced. Insurance names also edged higher with higher bond yields improving investment income. The broader tone stayed constructive, with defensives lagging slightly against cyclicals as tariff angst faded and global growth hopes steadied.
Santos shares outpaced the market after the company confirmed first Barossa LNG cargo loading, a key project milestone that boosted sentiment. The update, alongside firmer oil and LNG pricing, drew buyers and supported the energy complex while the ASX 200 rose. Santos gained about 5% intraday, helping lift the index’s energy heavyweights source.
RBA watch: February decision risks
With inflation sticky and jobs still strong, swaps imply a live risk of a February RBA rate hike. That backdrop favours banks over long‑duration tech and REITs. We see the ASX 200 sensitive to front‑end yields: firmer data likely tilts sector leadership toward value and cash‑generative names, while a dovish surprise would rotate flows back into growth and small caps.
Investors should watch upcoming CPI, retail sales, and wage prints for confirmation on inflation momentum. Company guidance during the February reporting season will be crucial for margins under higher funding costs. If services inflation cools, odds of an RBA pause rise. For the ASX 200, breadth and earnings revisions will signal whether today’s rebound can extend beyond a relief rally.
Levels and strategy for ASX investors
Energy exposure remains supported by LNG demand and supply discipline, while banks benefit from solid deposit franchises and stable credit. China‑sensitive miners may see sentiment swings with trade headlines. A firmer Australian dollar can temper offshore earners. We expect the ASX 200 to favour quality cash flows, buyback capacity, and pricing power while policy risk stays live.
Keep core positions in profitable large caps, add selectively on dips, and hedge rate sensitivity with a mix of value and short duration growth. Consider staggered entries ahead of data releases. For the ASX 200, focus on earnings resilience, conservative leverage, and clear capital return policies. Use stop levels and avoid concentration in single macro themes.
Final Thoughts
Today’s rebound shows how quickly the ASX 200 can respond when global risks ease. A softer US tariff stance lifted cyclicals and travel, while Santos’ Barossa milestone added energy tailwinds. At the same time, a firm labour market keeps an RBA rate hike risk alive for February, supporting banks and insurers over long‑duration growth. For portfolios, favour quality balance sheets, consistent cash generation, and clear capital return plans. Use staggered buys ahead of key data, and keep hedges for rate‑sensitive exposures. If inflation data cools, expect broader participation in the rally; if not, value and energy leadership likely persists. Stay nimble, data‑driven, and disciplined on risk controls.
FAQs
Why did the ASX 200 rebound today?
Sentiment improved after a Trump tariff reversal eased fears of broad import levies, lifting cyclicals and travel. Energy and major banks led gains as global growth hopes firmed. The move was tempered by local rate risks, but buyers focused on quality, liquid names and earnings resilience, helping the ASX 200 push higher.
How do RBA rate hike risks affect the ASX 200?
A higher chance of an RBA rate hike supports banks and insurers via margins and investment income, but pressures long‑duration tech and REITs. If data stay firm, leadership skews to value and cash‑generative stocks. A dovish turn would rotate flows back to growth and small caps within the ASX 200.
What drove Santos shares higher today?
Santos shares jumped after confirming first Barossa LNG cargo loading, a key project milestone. The update improved confidence in volumes and timelines, while firmer oil and LNG prices supported sector sentiment. That strength helped lift the ASX 200’s energy cohort during today’s risk‑on session.
Which data points should investors watch next?
Focus on upcoming CPI, retail sales, and wage numbers for direction on inflation and policy. Company outlooks during reporting season will guide margin trends under higher funding costs. These indicators will shape RBA expectations and sector leadership across the ASX 200 in the weeks ahead.
Disclaimer:
The content shared by Meyka AI PTY LTD is solely for research and informational purposes. Meyka is not a financial advisory service, and the information provided should not be considered investment or trading advice.
