AVJennings (AVJ.AX) oversold, bounce setup 03 Jan 2026: watch volume spike
The AVJ.AX stock opened intraday at A$0.68 and is trading at A$0.66 as of this ASX session, with volume of 3,012,286 that is over six times the average. AVJennings Limited (AVJ.AX) reported FY2024 results before the market open on 24 Feb 2025 where EPS missed at A$0.0043 versus an estimate of A$0.008 and revenue came in at A$131,360,000 against an estimate of A$153,200,000. The combination of an earnings miss, heavy turnover and a price sitting near the 50‑day average creates a classic oversold bounce setup for intraday and short‑term traders.
Earnings snapshot and market reaction
AVJennings Limited reported results bmo on 24 Feb 2025 for the fiscal year ending 31 Dec 2024 with EPS A$0.0043 versus an estimated A$0.008 and revenue A$131,360,000 against an estimated A$153,200,000. The shortfall explains the initial selling pressure that has driven intraday activity. One clear market reaction is higher turnover: current session volume is 3,012,286 compared with an average volume of 448,090, so liquidity is temporarily elevated and creates sharper intraday swings.
Intraday price action and key levels
Price is trading at A$0.66 with a session low of A$0.66 and a session high of A$0.68. The stock sits essentially at its 50‑day average of A$0.66 and above the 200‑day average of A$0.63, which gives short‑term buyers a clear reference for a bounce entry. Year high is A$0.73 and year low is A$0.28, so the current price is nearer the upper half of the 12‑month range. Watch whether volume sustains above 448,090 because a sustained volume tailwind would validate an oversold bounce attempt.
Valuation and fundamentals
AVJennings has a market cap of A$372,909,251 with P/E shown at 33.00 and price‑to‑book of 0.74. Book value per share is A$0.90 and cash per share is A$0.05. The company reports a current ratio of 2.98 and debt‑to‑equity of 0.50, indicating a conservative balance sheet for a developer. Operating and free cash flow per share are negative at approximately A$-0.14, which is a working capital feature of development cycles and increases execution risk during softer market windows.
Technical setup for an oversold bounce
The setup for an oversold bounce is straightforward: the stock moved lower after the earnings miss and traded with heavy volume this session (3,012,286), creating a high‑velocity pullback. Traders using the oversold‑bounce strategy should look for a drop‑and‑rip pattern, a tightening range near the 50‑day average (A$0.66) and follow‑through volume above the session average. Stop placement is logical below the intraday low and the nearest structural support is the 200‑day average at A$0.63.
Meyka grade and price forecasts
Meyka AI rates AVJ.AX with a score of 62.43 out of 100 — Grade B, HOLD. This grade factors in S&P 500 benchmark comparison, sector performance, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects A$1.24 in 12 months versus the current price of A$0.66, implying an upside of 87.36%. Forecasts are model‑based projections and not guarantees. Shorter term, an analyst price target range to watch for tactical trades is A$0.85 as a near‑term resistance and A$1.24 as a 12‑month reference.
Risks and catalysts to monitor
Key risks include further earnings weakness, slower housing demand in Australia, and cash conversion cycle pressure (days of inventory on hand is high at about 288 days). Catalysts that would validate a bounce include stronger pre‑sales or settlements updates, a stabilising interest rate outlook, and reuse of cash through dividends or buybacks. Intraday, the primary catalyst will be sustained volume above the session average confirming buyer conviction.
Final Thoughts
AVJennings Limited (AVJ.AX) presents a clear intraday oversold bounce opportunity after a below‑estimate FY2024 release and a surge in volume to 3,012,286. Price sits at A$0.66, essentially aligned with the 50‑day average of A$0.66 and above the 200‑day average of A$0.63, providing defined support and a logical stop below A$0.63 for short‑term trades. Valuation metrics are mixed: P/E at 33.00 and price‑to‑book at 0.74 suggest modest market valuation versus book value, while operating cash flow remains negative at roughly A$-0.14 per share. For intraday traders executing an oversold bounce strategy, the trade requires volume confirmation and a tight risk plan. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects A$1.24 in 12 months, implying an upside of 87.36% from A$0.66; forecasts are model‑based projections and not guarantees. Overall, AVJennings is a tactical bounce candidate for disciplined traders, while longer term investors should weigh development cycle cash flow volatility against the company’s asset backing and dividend signals. Meyka AI provides this as AI‑powered market analysis and not financial advice.
FAQs
The sell‑off followed FY2024 results reported before the open on 24 Feb 2025 where EPS missed at A$0.0043 versus an estimate of A$0.008 and revenue missed at A$131,360,000 versus A$153,200,000, prompting higher trading volume.
Look for a tightening range near the 50‑day average (A$0.66), sustained volume above the session average (448,090), and a price reclaim above short‑term resistance with follow‑through buying the next session.
Key metrics include market cap A$372,909,251, P/E 33.00, price‑to‑book 0.74, book value per share A$0.90, and operating cash flow per share about A$-0.14, reflecting development cycle cash needs.
Tactical intraday/near‑term resistance is around A$0.85; Meyka AI’s 12‑month model target is A$1.24, implying an 87.36% upside from A$0.66. Forecasts are projections not guarantees.
Disclaimer:
Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
